Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.4	Watch
	3	3.1	2.37
	3.1	3.1	2.4	Watch
	3.27	3.16	2.42
	3.27	3.16	2.4
	2.9	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.18	3.25	2.33	Watch
	3.1	3.05	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.9)	3.13 ↓ (3.2)	2.37 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
30.1%

Draw
30.1%

Atlético Mineiro
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.9%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

28.2%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	50%	37.5%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 2. Leo Coelho 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. 14. Garcia D. 10. Ramirez G. (C) 8. Fernandez L. 13. Darias E. 26. Sequeira L. 11. Silvera M.	22. Everson (G) 26. Renzo Saravia 3. Bruno Fuchs 34. Jemerson 13. Guilherme Arana 5. Otavio 21. Battaglia R. 23. Franco A. 15. Zaracho M. 10. Paulinho 7. Hulk (C)
Substitutes
33. Acosta N. 6. Castillo Segura B. D. 5. Cristoforo S. 30. Gonzalez A. 9. Gonzalez F. 34. Herrera N. 27. Lucas Hernandez 22. Matheus Babi 28. Neris P. 1. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Sosa D. 25. Sosa I.	14. Alan Kardec 45. Alisson 42. Cadu 11. Eduardo Vargas 6. Gustavo Scarpa 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 25. Mariano 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 30. Palacios Alzate B. 38. Pedrinho 47. Romulo
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Otavio ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
35', Franco A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sequeira L. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
46', Franco A. ↓, Eduardo Vargas ↑,
57', Ramirez G. ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
58', Jemerson ↓, Alisson ↑,
58', Darias E. 🟨,
60', Sosa I. 🟨,
63', Milans P. 🟨,
66', Paulinho 🟨,
70', 1 - 0, Lucas Hernandez ⚽,
76', 2 - 0, Silvera M. ⚽,
88', Silvera M. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
90+1', Eduardo Vargas 🟨,
90+2', Fernandez L. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
90+3', Garcia D. ↓, Cristoforo S. ↑,
90+6', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,

Preview

Atlético MG is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Peñarol is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético MG in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético MG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Caracas - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
29.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWTWL
- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Rosario Central - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.24	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2

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