Match Info

URUGUAY: Primera Division - Torneo Intermedio - Round 7

Date: 27 July 2024, Saturday

Location: Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Referee: Motta S. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Turkey	GOL TV Play, GOL TV Play
Usa	FuboTV
World	Fanatiz


	Atletico Fenix Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.37	3.2	2.75
	2.45	3.1	2.85
	2.54	3.2	3.01
	2.49	3.13	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.75
	2.48	3.2	2.83	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.55)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	2.84 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
38.2%

Draw
29.2%

Progreso
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.2%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

27.5%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	45.5%	36.4%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Fenix will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Progreso will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Marquez E. (G) 4. Perg M. 13. Pereira G. 24. Alvez J. (C) 15. Chopitea R. 16. Guisolfo B. 7. Fernandez W. 14. Alfaro A. 40. De Leon F. 27. Cachi M. 19. Juambeltz M.	33. Suarez N. (G) 15. Martin M. 3. Marta M. 22. Gonzalez J. 29. Fernandez N. 20. Garcia M. 8. Colombino A. 6. Silvera F. 10. Lemmo I. (C) 19. Barreto G. 9. Sequeira H.
Substitutes
23. Argacha A. 8. Breno Caetano 9. Da Silva S. 26. de Marco S. 11. Estoyanoff F. 20. Franca S. 32. Hernandez R. 18. Perez A. 33. Requena A. (G) 5. Schetino A.	21. Albano N. 14. Aramburu M. 16. Caballero P. 4. Carroso H. 1. Castro M. (G) 11. Colman G. 30. Hernandez Alvarez B. J. 5. Labraga G. 7. Moreira A. 17. Poiso J.
Coaches
Vigneri N.	Canobbio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Marta M. 🟨,
16', Alfaro A. 🟨,
20', Lemmo I. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Lemmo I. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Juambeltz M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Alfaro A. ↓, de Marco S. ↑,
58', Fernandez W. ↓, Schetino A. ↑,
61', Schetino A. 🟨,
61', Colombino A. 🟨,
63', De Leon F. 🟨,
71', Sequeira H. ↓, Colman G. ↑,
71', Colombino A. ↓, Aramburu M. ↑,
71', Caballero P. 🟨,
74', Cachi M. 🟨,
77', Cachi M. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
77', Juambeltz M. ↓, Da Silva S. ↑,
78', Silvera F. 🟨,
81', Martin M. 🟨,
86', Gonzalez J. 🟥,
90', Chopitea R. ↓, Estoyanoff F. ↑,
90', Barreto G. ↓, Poiso J. ↑,
90+1', Lemmo I. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
90+10', Colman G. 🟨,
90+14', Fernandez N. ↓, Hernandez Alvarez B. J. ↑,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 4 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fenix won 3.

Recent matches Fenix is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Progreso is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Fenix won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Fenix won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.07.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:0 ✺
14.07.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
07.07.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
22.06.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:3 ✺
16.06.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LLWWW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.07.24	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
14.07.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	4:2 ✺
07.07.24	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	3:2 ✺
22.06.24	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
15.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.05.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Progreso	1:0
04.11.21	Progreso - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0
11.07.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Progreso	2:1
02.02.21	Progreso - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:1
08.08.20	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Progreso	1:1
16.11.19	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Progreso	1:2
11.05.19	Progreso - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:0

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