Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Américo Montanini (Bucaramanga)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+
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Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
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Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	DSports 1611
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Atlético Bucaramanga		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.8	2.8	2.25	Watch
	3.8	2.9	2.1
	3.55	2.72	2.32
	3.91	2.92	2.34
	3.35	2.61	2.58	Watch
	3.75	2.9	2.1	Watch
	3.82	2.72	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↓ (3.87)	2.8 ↓ (3.18)	2.29 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Bucaramanga
25.3%

Draw
33.6%

Atlético Mineiro
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

29.6%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

29.1%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	44.4%	44.4%

Atlético Bucaramanga - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bucaramanga will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Atlético MG (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 24. Duarte B. 29. Henao C. 2. Mena J. (C) 8. Hinestroza F. 22. Fabry 20. Zarate A. 17. Gil Mosquera F. A. 10. Sambueza F. 7. Londono K. 27. Pons L.	22. Everson (G) 2. Natanael 4. Lyanco 6. Alonso J. 13. Guilherme Arana 25. Gabriel Menino 21. Franco A. 10. Gustavo Scarpa 33. Rony 7. Hulk (C) 92. Dudu
Substitutes
16. Artunduaga A. 70. Charrupi F. 15. Chavez D. 25. De Las Salas C. 28. Flores L. 4. Garcia J. 13. Hernandez N. 11. Jhon Vasquez 14. Mosquera J. 23. Romana C. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G)	11. Bernard 38. Caio Paulista 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 30. Isaac 19. Joao Marcelo 26. Renzo Saravia 31. Robert (G) 23. Roman I. 47. Romulus 14. Vitor Hugo
Coaches
Alvarez L.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
44', Franco A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gabriel Menino ↓, Roman I. ↑,
48', Henao C. 🟨,
52', Franco A. 🟨,
57', Londono K. ↓, Jhon Vasquez ↑,
63', Dudu ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Hulk (Pen),
73', Duarte B. 🟨,
75', Zarate A. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
75', Hulk ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
75', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Romulus ↑,
79', Hinestroza F. 🟨,
85', Gil Mosquera F. A. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
85', Hinestroza F. ↓, De Las Salas C. ↑,
88', Duarte B. 🟨,
88', Igor Gomes 🟨,
90+3', Natanael ↓, Igor Rabello ↑,
90+6', Joao Marcelo 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Bucaramanga is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético MG's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético MG could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
12.07.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Boyacá Chicó	1:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
13.06.25	Boca Juniors de Cali - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:1 ✺
10.06.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Boyacá Chicó	3:2 ✺
06.06.25	Deportes Quindío - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:2 ✺
02.06.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Cali	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWWTW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
12.06.25	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
01.06.25	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWTT

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