The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Athletico Paranaense 44.9%
Draw 28.8%
Atlético Mineiro 26.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
45%
28.1%
26.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.9%
28.2%
26.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
The ML Model estimate for Athletico Paranaense aligns with the current prediction.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
85.7%
14.3%
0%
Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro Predictions
Users Predictions:
Athletico Paranaense will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 7th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.
Athletico PR has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Atlético MG is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Athletico PR could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Atlético MG has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Athletico PR holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Athletico PR: Aguirre F.
(Yellow Cards)
Benavidez G.
(Muscle Injury)
Claudinho
(Muscle Injury).
Confirmed absences for Atlético MG: Everson
(Foot Injury)
Gustavo Scarpa
(Inactive)
Ruan Tressoldi
(Muscle Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Atlético MG: Cassierra M.
(Injury)
Reinier
(Injury)
Vitor Hugo
(Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Athletico PR has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:29 (averaging 0.9:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Athletico PR against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with 7:11 goals (averaging 0.7:1.1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Athletico-PR
28
14
7
7
43:32
11
49
7
Atletico-MG
28
12
7
9
37:32
5
43
Last Results with these Odds
Atlético Mineiro - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 26.85%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
Ecuador
Peru
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