Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Guaycura (La Paz)

Referee: Ortiz Leon J. C. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Atlético La Paz		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.18	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.23	3.72	3
	2.14	3.86	2.96	Watch
	2.15	3.4	2.75
	2.16	3.81	2.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.6)	3.66 ↑ (3.51)	2.9 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético La Paz
42.7%

Draw
25.3%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

26.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

26.2%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético La Paz's performance.

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tepatitlán de Morelos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético La Paz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tepatitlán de Morelos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Atlético La Paz will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tepatitlán will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Alcala G. (G) 13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 92. Alvarez D. 10. Barragan M. (C) 16. Del Aguila Y. 25. Illescas F. 12. Millan O. 21. Robles C. 8. Soto A. 15. Torres H. 28. Zurita Jimenez U.	1. Gutierrez G. (C) 26. Dominguez I. 18. Gomez J. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 29. Mendoza B. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 2. Pinela M. 20. Samano L. 8. Samano Salgado F. 23. Venegas J.
Substitutes
17. Chiu L. 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 1. Moreno C. (G) 11. Renteria R. 30. Robles A. 3. Rodriguez G. 2. Vazquez S. 26. Yanez J.	22. Aguilar D. 151. De La Torre K. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 13. Gonzalez Calderon L. A. 140. Iniguez O. 159. Macias L. 33. Martinez A. 11. Reyes J. 30. Talavera J.
Coaches
Castillo H.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Robles C. ⚽, Zurita Jimenez U. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,
65', Alvarez D. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
65', Del Aguila Y. ↓, Vazquez S. ↑,
66', Millan O. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
68', Illescas F. 🟨,
72', 1 - 1, Mendoza B. ⚽,
73', Samano L. 🟥,
73', 🟨,
76', Soto A. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
76', Mendoza B. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
80', Gomez J. ↓, Gonzalez Calderon L. A. ↑,
86', Torres H. ↓, Jaimes U. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Tepatitlán is Qualified for Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético La Paz won 2.

Atlético La Paz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tepatitlán is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Atlético La Paz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 1:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético La Paz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.04.26	Irapuato - Atlético La Paz	3:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
14.03.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Tlaxcala	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTWTW
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.04.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2 ✺
20.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.11.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	0:1
21.03.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	4:1
04.10.24	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:5
23.01.24	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
05.10.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	4:0
15.01.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	3:0
06.09.22	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1

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