Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)


	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Venados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.44	4.2	5.25
	1.55	4.15	4.95	Watch
	1.57	4.29	5.39
	1.53	4.51	5.36	Watch
	1.57	3.9	4.6
	1.53	4.05	5.05	Watch
	1.65	4	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.51)	4.16 ↓ (4.4)	5 ↓ (5.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
59.4%

Draw
22.1%

Venados
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

21.2%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

20.5%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venados than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 26. Dominguez I. 18. Gomez J. 5. Gonzalez K. 10. Guzman W. 19. Islas O. 2. Pinela M. 11. Reyes J. 6. Ruiz A. 8. Samano Salgado F.	28. Delgado A. (G) 143. Benitez S. 7. Calero J. 20. Cruz J. 10. Dominguez A. (C) 4. Grijalva A. 29. Lora S. 15. Navarrete D. 34. Saucedo S. 8. Torres D. 30. Torres Sauri M.
Substitutes
151. De La Torre K. 7. Escoto A. 145. Gomez G. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 140. Iniguez O. 159. Macias L. 33. Martinez A. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 20. Samano L. 30. Talavera J.	32. Aguilar M. 19. Ballesteros O. 9. Derbez L. 23. Galvan P. 21. Lopez C. 17. Martinez J. 1. Reyes D. (G) 24. Salcido J. 11. Tejeda D.
Coaches
Pereyra G.	Garcia I. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Reyes J. ⚽,
9', 2 - 0, Samano Salgado F. ⚽,
36', Aguilar D. 🟨,
45+2', Torres D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Navarrete D. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
46', Lora S. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
60', Torres Sauri M. 🟥,
67', Benitez S. ↓, Ballesteros O. ↑,
67', Cruz J. ↓, Derbez L. ↑,
73', Samano Salgado F. 🟨,
74', Aguilar D. ↓, Escoto A. ↑,
82', Islas O. ↓, Samano L. ↑,
82', Ruiz A. ↓, Moreno Villegas J. A. ↑,
82', Calero J. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
89', Reyes J. ↓, Talavera J. ↑,
89', Guzman W. ↓, De La Torre K. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 0.

Recent performances by Tepatitlán have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Venados's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tepatitlán may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tepatitlán is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Venados	11	6	1	4	26:21	5	19
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLWT
- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.03.26	Venados - Correcaminos UAT	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Venados	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Venados - Cancún	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Venados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.10.25	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
10.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	2:2
26.07.24	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
18.01.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	0:5
27.09.23	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	5:1
04.01.23	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
19.10.22	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	4:2

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