Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Delgadillo Franco O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Cancún		Tepatitlán de Morelos

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	3.25	2.48	Watch
	2.88	3.25	2.53
	2.63	3.31	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.4
	2.47	3.05	2.65	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.36)	3.18 ↑ (3.06)	2.6 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Cancún
35.5%

Draw
29%

Tepatitlán de Morelos
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

30.6%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

29.7%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tepatitlán de Morelos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cancún, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cancún will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Tepatitlán will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andrade C. (G) 14. Campos K. 5. Chavez A. 7. El-mesmari B. 3. Hernandez J. 8. Melendre F. 6. Ochoa I. 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J. 11. Trejo C. 10. Uscanga P. (C)	1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 26. Dominguez I. 18. Gomez J. 19. Islas O. 2. Pinela M. 11. Reyes J. 6. Ruiz A. 20. Samano L. 8. Samano Salgado F. 23. Venegas J.
Substitutes
26. Arce E. (G) 21. Barraza L. 2. Guzman G. 32. Lopez L. 18. Montiel S. 135. Perez G. 19. Preciado G. 22. Soria E. 9. Villatoro M.	7. Escoto A. 12. Gonzalez C. (G) 5. Gonzalez K. 10. Guzman W. 140. Iniguez O. 33. Martinez A. 29. Mendoza B. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 30. Talavera J.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Campos K. (A),
32', Reyes R. 🟨,
36', Aguilar D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Aguilar D. ↓, Guzman W. ↑,
46', Samano L. ↓, Mendoza B. ↑,
49', El-mesmari B. 🟨,
52', Pinela M. 🟨,
54', Melendre F. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
75', Gutierrez G. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Trejo C. 🟨,
78', Campos K. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
78', El-mesmari B. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Ruiz A. ⚽, Guzman W. (A),
82', Gomez J. ↓, Escoto A. ↑,
87', Samano Salgado F. ↓, Moreno Villegas J. A. ↑,
87', Uscanga P. ↓, Barraza L. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Escoto A. ⚽,
90+3', Ochoa I. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cancún may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cancún won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.03.26	Irapuato - Cancún	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Tapatío - Cancún	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Cancún - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Cancún - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TTWLW
- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Venados	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:2
17.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:1
03.08.24	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
19.03.24	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
30.08.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	3:0
21.03.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:0
11.10.22	Cancún - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:2

Upcoming Matches