Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)


	Atlético Morelia		Celaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	3.2	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.43	3.18	2.27
	3.33	3.18	2.22	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.2
	3.23	3.2	2.18	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (3.02)	3.19 ↓ (3.4)	2.2 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
28.6%

Draw
29.1%

Celaya
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

27.3%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

26.3%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Celaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Atlético Morelia - Celaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torres A. (C) 19. Gallegos D. 3. Garcia D. 14. Gonzalez R. 7. Islas O. 4. Lopez L. 13. Lopez R. 8. Maleck J. 20. Martinez E. 21. Polydoro L. 22. Torres Rodriguez R. D.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 31. Barragan M. 2. Cervantes D. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 14. Manriquez S. 7. Martinez J. 3. Monreal E. 4. Munoz J. 23. Vazquez J. (C)
Substitutes
27. Castellanos E. 6. Cortes J. 102. Gonzalez J. (G) 10. Illescas F. 16. Lopez D. 5. Miranda J. 24. Ortiz R. 9. Trejo C. 30. Yrizar P. 11. Zerecero P.	22. Baltazar C. 25. Blanco D. 6. Del Angel E. 12. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 30. Hernandez J. 17. Montejano E. 11. Tejeda D. 20. Tovar J. 9. Wlk Dure A. S.
Coaches
Garcia M.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Garcia D. ⚽,
16', Martinez E. 🟨,
24', Islas O. ↓, Illescas F. ↑,
45+1', Polydoro L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Polydoro L. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
48', Monreal E. 🟨,
57', Monreal E. ↓, Tovar J. ↑,
57', Manriquez S. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
68', Martinez J. 🟥,
72', Dominguez A. ↓, Wlk Dure A. S. ↑,
77', Torres Rodriguez R. D. ↓, Castellanos E. ↑,
77', Maleck J. ↓, Trejo C. ↑,
77', Gonzalez R. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
84', de los Santos L. ↓, Del Angel E. ↑,
84', Vazquez J. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
90', Munoz J. 🟥,
90+3', 2 - 0, Trejo C. (Pen),
90+6', Illescas F. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Morelia won 4.

Recent matches Atlético Morelia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Celaya is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Celaya could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Atlético Morelia won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Morelia won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.09.24	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
13.09.24	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	1:1 ✺
25.08.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
17.08.24	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTTW
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.09.24	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
25.09.24	Celaya - Atlante	0:1 ✺
14.09.24	Celaya - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:0 ✺
06.09.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Celaya	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Celaya - Atlético La Paz	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.03.24	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	1:2
06.08.23	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	1:0
14.05.23	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	1:3
11.05.23	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	1:1
02.04.23	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	3:2
07.09.22	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	2:0
08.03.22	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	2:2

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