Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Claro Sports, ESPN 4, FOX Sports 3, FOX Sports Premium, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Celaya		Jaiba Brava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.55	3.7	4.8
	1.55	3.9	5.6
	1.63	3.9	5.59
	1.57	3.96	5.7	Watch
	1.57	4.1	5.56	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.58)	3.91 ↑ (3.89)	5.48 ↑ (5.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
59.2%

Draw
23.8%

Jaiba Brava
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.7%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

22.9%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Celaya - Jaiba Brava Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jaiba Brava (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hernandez H. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 7. Barragan M. 25. Blanco D. 6. Del Angel E. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. (C) 28. Gamboa J. 21. Hernandez P. 14. Manriquez S. 3. Monreal E.	13. Ruiz G. (G) 2. Bocco L. 16. Dominguez R. 23. Escoboza A. 28. Flores S. (C) 3. Garcia D. 9. Garza A. 7. Magana D. 4. Rios A. 20. Santacruz J. 10. Soto O.
Substitutes
156. Chaurand K. 29. Espinoza G. (G) 16. Garcia J. 30. Kassi A. 136. Luna E. G. 19. Partida E. 18. Recalde B. 9. Sanchez A. 11. Tejeda D. 5. Topete N.	27. Angulo J. 14. Corona N. 6. Garcia E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 33. Gonzalez R. 24. Lopez Gonzalez J. A. 29. Lopez J. 5. Lopez R. 30. Ramos Saucedo S. 17. Trevino J.
Coaches
Blanco Soto S. R.	Ruiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Santacruz J. 🟨,
35', Rios A. 🟨,
43', Blanco D. 🟨,
45+6', Escoboza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Blanco D. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
46', Del Angel E. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
49', Hernandez P. 🟨,
58', Garcia J. 🟨,
62', Santacruz J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
67', Hernandez P. ↓, Partida E. ↑,
75', Rios A. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
84', Manriquez S. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
86', Magana D. ↓, Corona N. ↑,
86', Garza A. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Celaya won 0.

Recent matches Celaya is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Jaiba Brava is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Jaiba Brava could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Celaya is a favorite.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Celaya won 4 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 18:16 (average 0.9:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Celaya won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:5 (average 0.9:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.04.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Celaya - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG	2:3 ✺
05.04.25	Tlaxcala - Celaya	0:3 ✺
29.03.25	Celaya - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLWW
- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.04.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlante	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.04.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	1:0
15.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	0:0
28.09.24	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	0:0
06.04.22	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	2:2
03.08.21	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	0:0
10.03.21	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	1:0
12.12.20	Celaya - Jaiba Brava	2:2

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