Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 2

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez)

Referee: Martinez E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.5	3.45	1.92
	3.69	3.78	1.89	Watch
	3.9	3.6	1.8
	3.44	3.54	2.02	Watch
	3.6	3.5	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↑ (3.03)	3.57 ↑ (3.33)	1.89 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25.4%

Draw
25.8%

Atlético Morelia
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

27.2%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Morelia's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Morelia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Morelia will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 6. Arellano A. 16. Barreda I. 10. Cruz J. 3. Justo A. 7. Lopez D. 15. Lopez E. 11. Mascorro H. 8. Morales F. 2. Vazquez Garza H. A.	1. Torres A. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 11. Figueroa B. 16. Garcia U. 26. Martinez J. 32. Moreno G. 20. Palma A. 24. Vazquez B. (C) 4. Zamora D.
Substitutes
132. Ascencio E. 20. Ayala D. 177. Bustos J. 5. Esqueda Romero J. A. 24. Garcia L. 23. Hernandez A. 29. Meza S. 1. Rodas C. (G) 12. Tamay A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.	169. Castro C. 19. Gallegos D. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. 10. Munoz Z. 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 30. Sandoval L.
Coaches
Rivera J. M.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Moreno G. ⚽, Palma A. (A),
5', 0 - 2, del Campo R. ⚽, Dominguez M. (A),
11', Zamora D. 🟨,
15', Cruz J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lopez E. ↓, Esqueda Romero J. A. ↑,
46', Mascorro H. ↓, Vazquez Hernandez A. ↑,
46', Barreda I. ↓, Meza S. ↑,
46', Arellano A. ↓, Tamay A. ↑,
51', Martinez J. 🟨,
69', 0 - 3, del Campo R. ⚽, Dominguez M. (A),
70', Justo A. ↓, Ayala D. ↑,
71', Figueroa B. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
74', Vazquez Garza H. A. 🟨,
78', Dominguez M. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
78', Palma A. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
78', del Campo R. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
88', Munoz Z. 🟨,
89', Martinez J. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 0.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.2:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
14	Alebrijes Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8:22	-14	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.11.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Jaiba Brava - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1 ✺
24.10.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1 ✺
10.10.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 TLTWT
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.01.26	Atlético Morelia - Correcaminos UAT	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
19.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
13.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
09.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1
08.02.25	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
25.08.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético Morelia	1:1
13.04.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético Morelia	3:3
04.10.23	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:0
13.04.23	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1
21.10.22	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 penalties

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