Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico-Ciudad Madero)

Referee: Armenta J. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Jaiba Brava		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.45
	2.07	3.46	3.75
	2	3.55	3.54	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4
	2.02	3.26	3.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.87)	3.35 ↓ (3.58)	3.62 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaiba Brava
46.8%

Draw
27.6%

Atlético Morelia
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

26.1%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

25.5%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaiba Brava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (G) 14. Corona N. 16. Dominguez R. 23. Escoboza A. (C) 3. Garcia D. 2. Gonzalez C. 24. Lopez Gonzalez J. A. 7. Magana D. 18. Portales J. 5. Razo L. 8. Torres E.	22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 11. Figueroa B. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. 26. Martinez J. (C) 32. Moreno G. 20. Palma A. 4. Zamora D.
Substitutes
22. Clemente J. 27. Escalante E. 6. Garcia E. 1. Garcia J. (G) 15. Ham Puertos A. M. 19. Martinez F. 9. Martinez J. 21. Peralta J. 31. Rodriguez M. 10. Soto O.	7. Aguilera A. D. 119. Avila Jaimes H. E. 6. Botello O. 150. Conejo J. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 10. Munoz Z. 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 31. Vivas J. F.
Coaches
Ruiz M.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Martinez J. ↓, Ochoa Brandon ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Magana D. ⚽, Razo L. (A),
69', del Campo R. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
69', Martinez J. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
73', Corona N. 🟨,
76', Hernandez S. 🟨,
76', Corona N. ↓, Clemente J. ↑,
76', Palma A. ↓, Botello O. ↑,
77', Dominguez M. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
82', Magana D. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
90+3', Razo L. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
90+3', Escoboza A. ↓, Peralta J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 1.

Jaiba Brava is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Morelia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético Morelia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jaiba Brava will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jaiba Brava won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12:19	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.04.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTTTW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.04.26	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	0:0
11.01.25	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	1:0
27.07.24	Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia	1:1
20.03.22	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	2:1
04.12.21	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	0:2
30.11.21	Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia	2:2
03.11.21	Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia	1:1

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