The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Leones Negros UdeG 34.9%
Draw 27.5%
Atlético Morelia 37.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.4%
28.4%
28.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.7%
29.2%
27.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones Negros UdeG's form might have worsened.
Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Morelia's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+9.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
25%
75%
Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 24. Aguayo J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 22. Gil O. 88. Gonzalez O. 34. Hernandez S. A. 82. Meza U. 18. Munoz D. 2. Sanchez J. (C) 12. Villa O.
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 7. Aguilera A. D. 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 3. Hernandez S. 32. Moreno G. 29. Ochoa Brandon 20. Palma A. 30. Sandoval L. 4. Zamora D. (C)
Substitutes
10. Brigido J. 6. Cisneros C. 20. Flores B. 93. Lara M. 100. Morales F. 94. Padilla L. 11. Perez J. 87. Valenzuela M. 98. Venegas S. 14. Villalobos A.
119. Avila Jaimes H. E. 6. Botello O. 150. Conejo J. 23. Esqueda D. 11. Figueroa B. 28. Flores A. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 26. Martinez J. 10. Munoz Z. 17. Nambo M.
Coaches
Sosa L.
Ortiz M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Sandoval L. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Aguayo J. ⚽,
45', Hernandez S. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Zamora D. 🟨,
52', Ochoa Brandon 🟨,
52', Sandoval L. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
53', Aguilera A. D. ↓, Figueroa B. ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Gil O. ⚽, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. (A),
70', Andrade A. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
70', Moreno G. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
75', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
75', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
75', Gil O. ↓, Cisneros C. ↑,
77', Ochoa Brandon ↓, Esqueda D. ↑,
88', Munoz D. ↓, Flores B. ↑,
90+4', Martinez J. 🟨,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 4.
Recent form of Leones Negros UdeG has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Atlético Morelia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Atlético Morelia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.3:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.1:0.4).
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Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 
Gil O. 
Aguilera A. D. 
del Campo R. 
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