Match Info

A-League - Round 7

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Go Media Stadium (Auckland)

Referee: Kersey A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Thailand	SPOTV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV


	Auckland FC		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
	1.51	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.52	4.45	5.4	Watch
	1.56	4.41	5.9
	1.52	4.47	5.8	Watch
	1.5	4	5.75
	1.54	4.34	6.36
	1.52	4.25	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.42)	4.35 ↓ (4.64)	5.77 ↓ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auckland FC
61.9%

Draw
21.7%

Wellington Phoenix
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66%

20.1%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

19.2%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auckland FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland FC than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Auckland FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Auckland (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Auckland FC will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Woud M. (G) 17. Elliot C. 23. Hall D. 3. Girdwood-Reich J. 15. De Vries F. 22. Brimmer J. (C) 6. Verstraete L. 27. Rogerson L. 77. Brook L. 21. Randall J. 9. Cosgrove S.	1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 27. Sheridan M. 15. Hughes I. 4. James M. 12. Edwards D. 14. Rufer A. (C) 25. Nagasawa K. 18. Kelly-Heald L. 20. Najjarine R. 7. Eze I. 11. Armiento C.
Substitutes
35. Bidois J. 11. Francois M. 8. Gallegos L. F. 7. Howieson C. 10. May G. 4. Pijnaker N. 20. Sail O. (G)	29. Brooke-Smith L. 37. Cassidy A. 5. Conchie F. 24. Loke T. 40. McCarron E. (G) 3. Piper C. 39. Smith J.
Coaches
Corica S.	Italiano G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Brook L. ⚽, Rogerson L. (A),
45', Cosgrove S. 🟨,
45+2', Hughes I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Hughes I. ↓, Piper C. ↑,
46', James M. 🟥,
55', 1 - 1, Rufer A. ⚽,
63', Rufer A. 🟨,
64', Cosgrove S. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Eze I. 🟨,
72', De Vries F. (Penalty Awarded),
72', 2 - 1, De Vries F. ⚽,
77', Brook L. ↓, May G. ↑,
77', Brimmer J. ↓, Gallegos L. F. ↑,
77', Edwards D. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
78', May G. 🟨,
80', 3 - 1, May G. ⚽, Cosgrove S. (A),
82', Cosgrove S. ↓, Bidois J. ↑,
86', Najjarine R. ↓, Conchie F. ↑,
87', Randall J. ↓, Francois M. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Auckland is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Wellington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, Auckland is the team to beat.

There will not play in Auckland: Sakai H. (Injury)

There will not play in Wellington: Ishige H. (Injury) Mileusnic N. (Injury) Payne T. (Inactive) Retre P. (Abdominal strain) Walker N. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Auckland won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Auckland won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auckland FC
Australian A-League
29.11.25	Auckland FC - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Auckland FC - Brisbane Roar	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Auckland FC - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Auckland FC - Western Sydney Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWWW
- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
28.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Central Coast Mariners - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Wellington Phoenix - Brisbane Roar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
08.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	1:2
21.02.25	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	6:1
06.12.24	Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
02.11.24	Wellington Phoenix - Auckland FC	0:2

Auckland FC - Wellington Phoenix: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide