Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 16

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Audax Italiano		Universidad de Chile

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.30	3.30	2.10
	3.35	3.45	2.08	Watch
	3.66	3.73	2.04
	3.4	3.53	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.65	1.98
	3.81	3.72	1.96	Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (3.21)	3.55 ↑ (3.22)	2.01 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Audax Italiano
26.8%

Draw
26.5%

Universidad de Chile
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

29%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

29.8%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Audax Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Universidad de Chile has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Audax Italiano than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Audax Italiano will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ahumada T. (G) 35. Rebolledo R. 13. Ferrario E. 4. Pina D. 23. Matus E. 19. Pinares C. 32. Soto B. 28. Mateos F. 7. Guajardo P. 11. Troyansky F. 27. Fuentes M. (C)	25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 5. Ramirez N. 31. Tamayo B. 29. Barrera L. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 8. Poblete Zuniga I. E. 23. Vasquez Gonzalez I. A. 14. Morales M. 11. Eduardo Vargas (C) 28. Arce A.
Substitutes
21. Chiaverano G. 9. Coelho D. 8. Collao M. 25. Garrido P. (G) 17. Loyola F. 29. Ortiz M. 16. Rojas Munoz O. J. 6. Sandoval M. 30. Uribe A.	19. Altamirano J. 20. Aranguiz C. 10. Assadi L. 2. Calderon F. 38. Cofre D. 21. Diaz M. 6. Fernandez N. 18. Lucero J. 1. Toselli C. (G)
Coaches
Graff P.	Gago F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Rebolledo R. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Arce A. ⚽, Eduardo Vargas (A),
33', Tamayo B. 🟨,
39', Guajardo P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 1, Mateos F. ⚽, Matus E. (A),
65', Vasquez Gonzalez I. A. ↓, Assadi L. ↑,
65', Poblete Zuniga I. E. ↓, Aranguiz C. ↑,
69', Guajardo P. ↓, Chiaverano G. ↑,
69', Pinares C. ↓, Collao M. ↑,
75', Arce A. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Eduardo Vargas ⚽,
78', Mateos F. ↓, Sandoval M. ↑,
78', Fuentes M. ↓, Loyola F. ↑,
85', Soto B. ↓, Coelho D. ↑,
87', Guerrero Pena M. G. ↓, Calderon F. ↑,
90', Lucero J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Audax Italiano won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Audax Italiano won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Audax Italiano won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).

Outrights of Chilean Primera Division for now

U. De Chile: 9.15%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. De Chile	23	12	6	5	35:19	16	42
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	26:31	-5	28

Last Results with these Odds

Audax Italiano - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 29.09%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Audax Italiano
Chilean Cup
11.07.26	Deportes Magallanes - Audax Italiano	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - Audax Italiano	2:1 ✺
30.06.26	Audax Italiano - Palestino	3:2 ✺
27.06.26	Audax Italiano - Deportes Magallanes	2:1 ✺
23.06.26	Palestino - Audax Italiano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWWW
- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Cup
05.07.26	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad de Chile	2:3 ✺
01.07.26	Universidad de Chile - Unión La Calera	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	Universidad de Chile - Unión San Felipe	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Unión La Calera - Universidad de Chile	3:3 ✺
21.06.26	Universidad de Chile - Santiago Wanderers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Copa de la Liga
07.06.26	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	2:2
31.03.26	Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile	1:3
Chilean Primera Division
30.01.26	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	0:0
17.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	1:3
14.03.25	Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile	1:1
28.07.24	Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile	1:0
24.02.24	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	1:0

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