Match Info

MLS

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Q2 Stadium (Austin, TX)

Referee: Freemon J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Austin FC		San Diego

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.75	2.30	Watch
	2.65	3.50	2.40
	2.50	3.55	2.55
	2.75	3.81	2.50
	2.49	3.69	2.63	Watch
	2.70	3.75	2.40
	2.82	3.78	2.37	Watch
	2.70	3.60	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.21)	3.68 ↓ (3.83)	2.44 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austin FC
35.5%

Draw
25.7%

San Diego
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

24.6%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

24.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Austin FC's form might have worsened.

San Diego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Diego's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Austin FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Diego, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Austin FC - San Diego Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Austin will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). San Diego will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Austin: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Austin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Las D. (G) 3. Desler M. 4. Hines-Ike B. 15. Bell J. 17. Gallagher J. 38. Torres E. 14. Sabovic B. 23. Kolmanic Z. 11. Torres F. 9. Vazquez B. 21. Ramirez C. (C)	18. Ferree D. (G) 26. Duah M. 25. Pilcher I. 32. Murphy I. 33. Verhoeven O. 6. Tverskov J. (C) 20. Godoy A. 5. Sargeant K. 10. Dreyer A. 7. Ingvartsen M. 19. Vazquez D.
Substitutes
24. Alastuey J. 22. Applewhite C. 32. Burton M. 26. Cayelli P. 35. Djordjevic M. 25. Dobrijevic S. 40. Lauta E. (G) 6. Sanchez I. 5. Svatok O.	16. Alstrup M. (G) 70. Alvarado Jr A. 94. Bakambu C. 97. McVey C. 77. Mighten A. 17. Soe O. 15. Soma P. 3. Thorhallsson D. 14. Zamble B. B.
Coaches
Arnaud D.	Varas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Kolmanic Z. ↓, Svatok O. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', Vazquez D. ↓, Bakambu C. ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Godoy A. ⚽,
58', 0 - 2, Desler M. (Own goal),
64', 0 - 3, Ingvartsen M. ⚽, Dreyer A. (A),
65', Svatok O. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
66', Sabovic B. ↓, Alastuey J. ↑,
73', 1 - 3, Vazquez B. ⚽, Torres E. (A),
82', 2 - 3, Ramirez C. ⚽, Bell J. (A),
86', 3 - 3, Ramirez C. ⚽, Gallagher J. (A),
87', Ramirez C. 🟨,
89', Murphy I. ↓, Alvarado Jr A. ↑,
89', Verhoeven O. ↓, Thorhallsson D. ↑,
90+5', Godoy A. ↓, Zamble B. B. ↑,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 12th and 11th).

Austin is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

San Diego is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Austin: Guilherme Biro (Yellow Cards) Rosales J. (Yellow Cards) Uzuni M. (International duty).

Confirmed absences for San Diego: Achouri E. (International duty) Valakari O. (International duty) dos Santos CJ (International duty).

Doubtful / questionable for Austin: Placheta P. (Lower-Body Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for San Diego: Gabriel Pirani (Injury) Mighten A. (Lower-Body Injury).

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Austin has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:8 (averaging 0.7:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Austin against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Outrights of MLS for now

San Diego FC: 0.86% Austin FC: 0.53%

Last Results with these Odds

Austin FC - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.7%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austin FC
MLS
19.09.26	FC Dallas - Austin FC	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Austin FC	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Austin FC - Colorado Rapids	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Austin FC - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Portland Timbers - Austin FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.1 TWTTW
- San Diego FC
MLS
20.09.26	Inter Miami - San Diego	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	San Diego - Philadelphia Union	0:5 ✺
09.09.26	San Diego - San Jose Earthquakes	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Orlando City - San Diego	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	San Diego - Los Angeles Galaxy	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
13.05.26	San Diego - Austin FC	5:0
31.05.25	San Diego - Austin FC	2:0
23.03.25	Austin FC - San Diego	2:1

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