Match Info

Date: 13 October 2022, Thursday

Location: Generali Arena (Vienna)

Referee: Kabakov G. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	Austria Wien		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.33	1.55
	5.25	4.33	1.53
	5.35	4.4	1.57
	5.4	4.3	1.53
	5.49	4.54	1.57
	5.25	4.35	1.54
	5.4	4.6	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.34 ↑ (4.71)	4.41 ↑ (3.73)	1.55 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austria Wien
17.7%

Draw
21.4%

Villarreal
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

25.1%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

25.4%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austria Wien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austria Wien than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.8%	8.1%	81.1%

Austria Wien - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.46% – 93.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Austria has currently - 1, has a very small chance of 1st (<1%), has a small chance of 2nd (11%), has a chance of 3rd (26%), has a small chance of knockout phase (11%), has a very small chance of round of 16 (5%), has a very small chance of qtrs (2%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Villarreal has currently - 9, has a very good chance of 1st (99%), has a very small chance of 2nd (1%), has a very small chance of 3rd (<1%), has a very good chance of knockout phase (>99%), has a very good chance of round of 16 (>99%), has a good chance of qtrs (78%), has a good chance of semis (58%), has a chance of final (41%), has a chance of win league (26%).

This event has quality 58, small importance 27, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Villarreal is a favorite.

There will not play in Austria: El Sheiwi Z. (Injury) Handl J. (Injury) Raguz M. (Injury) Wustinger F. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Knee Injury) Kiko (Injury) Moreno G. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Austria: Martins M. (Injury) Muhl L. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Austria won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austria Wien
Austrian Bundesliga
09.10.22	Rapid Wien - Austria Wien	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.10.22	Villarreal - Austria Wien	5:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
02.10.22	Austria Wien - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
18.09.22	Austria Wien - Ried	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	Lech Poznań - Austria Wien	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLLWL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
09.10.22	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.10.22	Villarreal - Austria Wien	5:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.10.22	Cádiz - Villarreal	0:0 ✺
18.09.22	Villarreal - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	Hapoel Beer Sheva - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
06.10.22	Villarreal - Austria Wien	5:0

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