Match Info

Serie B - Round 7

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Avaí		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.1	Watch
	2.55	3	2.7
	2.35	3	3.05
	2.49	3.13	3.22
	2.39	3.1	3.09	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3
	2.4	2.99	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.6)	3.02 ↑ (2.98)	3.04 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
38.4%

Draw
30.9%

Grêmio Novorizontino
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

31.3%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

32%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 2. Wallison 3. Allyson 55. Bruno Baldini 36. DG 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas 57. Walace Franca	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 25. Dantas 3. Carlinhos 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 16. Vinicius Paiva 18. Leo Naldi 17. Matheus Bianqui 15. Tavinho 11. Robson (C) 10. Romulo
Substitutes
9. Avenatti F. 15. Guilherme Aquino 18. Hyan 1. Igor Bohn (G) 16. Jamerson 29. Marcio Vitor 25. Paulo Vitor 7. Rafael Bilu 5. Romildo Del Piage 11. Sorriso 95. Wenderson 52. Wesley Gasolina	9. Carlao 20. Castrillon N. 19. Diego Galo 77. Helio Borges 22. Ivan Alvarino 93. Jordi (G) 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 28. Marlon 8. Ortiz C. 7. Ronald Barcellos
Coaches
Cauan de Almeida	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Patrick ↓, Kauan Alemao ↑,
15', Allyson 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Luiz Henrique ⚽,
29', Thayllon 🟨,
30', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
40', Allyson ↓, Guilherme Aquino ↑,
42', Walace Franca 🟥,
45', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Tavinho ↓, Juninho ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Robson ⚽, Romulo (A),
56', Thayllon ↓, Sorriso ↑,
67', Luiz Henrique ↓, Paulo Vitor ↑,
67', Jean Lucas ↓, Rafael Bilu ↑,
71', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Romulo ⚽, Juninho (A),
79', Wallison ↓, Wesley Gasolina ↑,
79', Ze Ricardo ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
82', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
82', Romulo ↓, Marlon ↑,
90', Kauan Alemao ↓, Castrillon N. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Rafael Bilu ⚽, Wesley Gasolina (A),
90+6', Wesley Gasolina 🟨,
90+7', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
90+10', Guilherme Aquino 🟨,
90+11', 2 - 3, Leo Naldi (Penalty Awarded),
90+15', 3 - 3, Paulo Vitor ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Avaí: Wenderson (Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Diego Mathias (Inactive) Eduardo Brock (Injury) Gabriel Bahia (Inactive) Jordi (Inactive) Luis Oyama (Yellow Cards) Marlon (Inactive) Nicolas Careca (Injury) Renato Palm (Inactive)

There are questionable in Avaí: Cabral N. (Inactive) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Avaí - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.91%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.76%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Avaí	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Avaí - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	Avaí - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Sport Recife - Avaí	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WLLWT
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.26	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
03.08.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:1
06.04.25	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
22.10.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	2:0
08.07.24	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
11.09.23	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
23.05.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	2:0

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