Match Info

Serie B - Round 23

Date: 19 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Avaí		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	3.20	Watch
	2.30	3.00	3.00
	2.33	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.49	3.13	3.30
	2.22	3.18	3.35	Watch
	2.35	3.15	3.15
	2.42	3.08	3.02	Watch
	2.29	3.10	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.9)	3.11 ↓ (3.2)	3.15 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
40.1%

Draw
30.1%

Sport Recife
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

29%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29.2%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avaí's performance.

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sport Recife might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avaí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sport Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Avaí - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Recife will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Recife (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 22. Joao Vitor 3. Allyson (C) 40. Reynaldo 38. Jefferson Maciel 25. Paulo Vitor 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 56. William 7. Leo Chu 11. Vizeu F.	26. Thiago Couto (G) 68. Augusto 3. Marcelo Ajul 33. Kayky Almeida 60. Felipinho 23. Ze Gabriel (C) 29. Willian Oliveira 31. Marlon Douglas 20. Diego Hernandez 25. Clayson 9. Pedro Perotti
Substitutes
36. Douglas Teixeira 23. Gabriel Cipriano 15. Guilherme Aquino 1. Igor Bohn (G) 20. Isaias 10. Jean Lucas 9. Leo Gamalho 66. Quaresma 5. Romildo Del Piage 2. Wallison 95. Wenderson 77. Ze Ricardo	5. Benevenuto 21. Brenno (G) 27. Claudinho 10. de Pena Carlos 77. Dudu 96. Edson Lucas 28. Habraao 8. Juan Alano 15. Murilo Rhikman 48. Pedro Martins 99. Ze Roberto
Coaches
Aal A.	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Felipinho ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Leo Chu ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
47', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
66', 0 - 1, Diego Hernandez ⚽, Edson Lucas (A),
67', Marlon Douglas ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
68', Paulo Vitor ↓, Gabriel Cipriano ↑,
69', Allyson ↓, Romildo Del Piage ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Romildo Del Piage ⚽,
83', Pedro Perotti ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
83', Augusto ↓, Claudinho ↑,
84', Clayson ↓, Dudu ↑,
88', Vizeu F. ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
88', William ↓, Douglas Teixeira ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Leo Gamalho ⚽,
90+3', Claudinho 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1.

Recent performances by Avaí have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recife is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.99%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
16.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Avaí	1:2 ✺
11.08.26	Avaí - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
28.07.26	Juventude - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	São Bernardo - Avaí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLLWT
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
14.08.26	Sport Recife - Londrina	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Vila Nova - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
27.07.26	Sport Recife - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	Goiás - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Sport Recife - Operário Ferroviario	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Sport Recife - Avaí	2:2
07.09.24	Avaí - Sport Recife	0:2
18.05.24	Sport Recife - Avaí	1:2
29.09.23	Avaí - Sport Recife	2:2
07.06.23	Sport Recife - Avaí	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
10.09.17	Sport Recife - Avaí	0:1
04.06.17	Avaí - Sport Recife	1:0

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