Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Referee: Cartagena J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.6	2.98	2.8	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.8
	2.66	3.01	2.76	Watch
	2.57	3.1	2.72	Watch
	2.43	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.43)	3.13 ↓ (3.4)	2.76 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
36.3%

Draw
29.8%

ADT Tarma
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

27.5%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

29.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Ayacucho - ADT Tarma Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. ADT (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - ADT (1.93) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - ADT (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. ADT (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 22. Bilbao J. 3. Ganoza M. 5. Tamariz A. 18. Orue D. (C) 88. Arakaki H. 8. Ramirez D. 66. de la Cruz A. 77. Lucumi J. 99. Caballero F.	25. Hermoza E. (G) 3. Narvaez J. 28. Soto J. 55. Dulanto G. 6. Bersano F. 88. Barreto G. 29. Robles A. 24. Perez A. 14. Cabello C. 77. Da Luz M. 7. Rojas J. (C)
Substitutes
27. Barrios K. 12. Caro D. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 55. Leon Canchanya B. H. 96. Peral P. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 33. Salcedo R. 4. Yovera A.	15. Alvino J. 13. Azanero E. (G) 31. Bazan N. 16. Choi G. 65. Gutierrez A. 8. Moyano A. 18. Pinto O. 9. Rengifo H. 99. Rodriguez P.
Coaches
Castellanos S.	Ruggeri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Ganoza M. 🟥,
20', Ramirez D. ↓, Leon Canchanya B. H. ↑,
25', 1 - 0, Arakaki H. ⚽, Lucumi J. (A),
30', 1 - 1, Da Luz M. ⚽, Rojas J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 1 - 2, Da Luz M. ⚽, Cabello C. (A),
57', Rojas J. 🟨,
62', 2 - 2, Lucumi J. ⚽, Orue D. (A),
66', Orue D. 🟨,
77', Tamariz A. 🟥,
78', Arakaki H. ↓, Caro D. ↑,
79', de la Cruz A. ↓, Peral P. ↑,
79', Perez A. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
81', Caballero F. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
84', Robles A. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 3).

Recent performances by Ayacucho have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

ADT is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

ADT may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in ADT: Cedron V. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ayacucho: Ataupillco J. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ayacucho won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
29.09.25	Sporting Cristal - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
25.09.25	Ayacucho - Juan Pablo II College	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
18.09.25	Ayacucho - Cusco	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLLW
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
04.10.25	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	3:2 ✺
30.09.25	Juan Pablo II College - ADT Tarma	1:1 ✺
26.09.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
22.09.25	Cusco - ADT Tarma	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
25.05.25	ADT Tarma - Ayacucho	0:1
13.08.22	Ayacucho - ADT Tarma	1:2
20.03.22	ADT Tarma - Ayacucho	0:0

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