Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 27 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.62	Watch
	4.6	3.7	1.58
	5.1	3.95	1.62	Watch
	4.82	3.82	1.68	Watch
	4.6	3.8	1.67
	5.16	4.03	1.67	Watch
	5.1	3.95	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↑ (3.91)	3.84 ↑ (3.27)	1.64 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
19.1%

Draw
24.2%

FBC Melgar
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

28.9%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

28.4%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ayacucho's form might have worsened.

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting FBC Melgar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for FBC Melgar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	6.2%	93.7%

Ayacucho - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: FBC Melgar will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 22. Bilbao J. 3. Ganoza M. 5. Tamariz A. 18. Orue D. 77. Lucumi J. 8. Ramirez D. 4. Yovera A. 7. Ferreira M. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M.	12. Caceda C. (G) 23. Rodriguez D. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 15. Orzan H. (C) 10. Martinez T. 24. Tandazo W. 19. Rodriguez G. 7. Bordacahar C. 17. Liza P.
Substitutes
27. Barrios K. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 80. Medina F. 2. Navarro G. 11. Ruidiaz Y. 9. Salem J. 16. Vilchez J.	28. Arias A. 25. Barreda M. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 33. Lazo M. 13. Llontop M. 4. Ramos E.
Coaches
Ospina E.	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Perez Azambuya E. M. (Pen),
27', Liza P. 🟨,
33', Lucumi J. 🟨,
33', Valencia J. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Martinez T. ⚽, Bordacahar C. (A),
44', 2 - 1, Lucumi J. ⚽, Ferreira M. (A),
44', Ganoza M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rodriguez D. ↓, Lazo M. ↑,
54', Liza P. ↓, Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↑,
54', Tandazo W. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
59', Orzan H. 🟨,
63', Orzan H. 🟥,
65', Rodriguez G. ↓, Arias A. ↑,
75', Bilbao J. 🟥,
77', 2 - 2, Guzman L. ⚽,
78', Yovera A. ↓, Navarro G. ↑,
78', Ferreira M. 🟨,
80', Ferreira M. ↓, Salem J. ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Guzman L. ⚽,
85', Bordacahar C. ↓, Barreda M. ↑,
87', Lucumi J. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
87', Ramirez D. ↓, Vilchez J. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ayacucho won 1.

Ayacucho is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Melgar is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Melgar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Melgar have a series of home games.

In this match Melgar is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Ayacucho won 2 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 13:31 (average 0.7:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Ayacucho won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:12 (average 0.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.25	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Ayacucho - Sport Huancayo	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Sport Boys - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
17.02.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:2 ✺
08.02.25	Atlético Grau - Ayacucho	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLWL
- FBC Melgar
Copa Libertadores
12.03.25	Cerro Porteño - FBC Melgar	4:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
08.03.25	FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	FBC Melgar - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
27.02.25	FBC Melgar - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.02.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
08.10.22	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	3:0
22.05.22	Ayacucho - FBC Melgar	0:1
17.09.21	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	1:1
12.04.21	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	0:0
31.10.20	Ayacucho - FBC Melgar	2:0
05.10.20	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	0:0
20.07.19	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	3:0

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