Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Cerro Porteño		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.3	5	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5.25
	1.72	3.5	5	Watch
	1.74	3.45	5.23
	1.75	3.45	5.3	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.6	Watch
	1.74	3.46	5.35	Watch
	1.72	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.66)	3.41 ↓ (3.68)	5.09 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
54%

Draw
27.5%

FBC Melgar
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

25.1%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

26.6%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Cerro Porteño - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: Cerro Porteño will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Fernandez R. (G) 13. Benitez A. G. 3. Perez M. 23. Velazquez G. 2. Benitez A. 30. Gimenez G. 26. Piris R. 17. Aguayo G. 10. Dominguez C. 21. Araujo S. 8. Carrizo F.	12. Caceda C. (G) 6. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 2. Barrios P. 33. Lazo M. 15. Orzan H. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 24. Tandazo W. 10. Martinez T. 8. Guzman L. 7. Bordacahar C.
Substitutes
29. Avalos A. 19. Chico 28. Farina A. 38. Favero C. 11. Iturbe J. 37. Leon D. 1. Martin A. (G) 5. Morel J. 16. Nunez A. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 18. Valdez B. 20. Viera W.	28. Arias A. 20. Bernaola G. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 17. Liza P. 13. Llontop M. 35. Meneses D. 4. Ramos E. 38. Rios J. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Araujo S. ⚽, Aguayo G. (A),
30', Dominguez C. (Pen),
38', Aguayo G. ↓, Iturbe J. ↑,
42', Gimenez G. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 1, Martinez T. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Lazo M. ↓, Ramos E. ↑,
46', Guzman L. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
46', Araujo S. ↓, Viera W. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Carrizo F. ⚽, Iturbe J. (A),
60', Dominguez C. 🟨,
62', Iturbe J. ↓, Chico ↑,
62', Carrizo F. ↓, Farina A. ↑,
66', Velazquez G. 🟨,
69', Tandazo W. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Chico ⚽, Dominguez C. (A),
79', 4 - 1, Farina A. ⚽,
80', Dominguez C. ↓, Morel J. ↑,
82', Martinez T. ↓, Arias A. ↑,
82', Cabanillas N. ↓, Llontop M. ↑,
89', 4 - 2, Liza P. ⚽, Arias A. (A),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Recent matches Cerro Porteño is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Melgar is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Melgar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Melgar have a series of home games.

In this match Cerro Porteño is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Cerro Porteño won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.03.25	General Caballero JLM - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	FBC Melgar - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.03.25	Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.02.25	Cerro Porteño - Monagas	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
23.02.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
08.03.25	FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	FBC Melgar - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
27.02.25	FBC Melgar - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.02.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.02.25	Deportes Tolima - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	FBC Melgar - Cerro Porteño	0:1

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