Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	FBC Melgar		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	5	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.8
	1.95	3.2	4	Watch
	1.9	3.44	4.75
	1.94	3.29	4.06	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4.6	Watch
	1.81	3.4	4.9	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2)	3.31 ↑ (3.25)	4.51 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
50.6%

Draw
28.5%

Cerro Porteño
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.6%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

26.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	31.2%	6.2%

FBC Melgar - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. (C) 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Martinez T. 24. Tandazo W. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 11. Castro F.	25. Fernandez R. (C) 16. Nunez A. 23. Velazquez G. 3. Perez M. 13. Benitez A. G. 8. Carrizo F. 26. Piris R. 30. Gimenez G. 10. Dominguez C. 11. Iturbe J. 27. Torres J.
Substitutes
28. Arias A. 20. Bernaola G. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 17. Liza P. 36. Nunez P. 37. Pumacajia A. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.	17. Aguayo G. 21. Araujo S. 19. Chico 28. Farina A. 33. Gomez R. 1. Martin A. (G) 5. Morel J. 36. Olmedo L. 4. Rivas L. 22. Rodriguez D. 18. Valdez B. 20. Viera W.
Coaches
Ribonetto W.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Dominguez C. (Pen),
31', Caceda C. 🟨,
33', Iturbe J. ↓, Chico ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Piris R. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Castro F. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
57', Dominguez C. ↓, Morel J. ↑,
63', Llontop M. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
67', Carrizo F. ↓, Viera W. ↑,
67', Torres J. ↓, Valdez B. ↑,
67', Piris R. ↓, Farina A. ↑,
73', Fernandez R. 🟨,
85', Lazo M. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
86', Benitez A. G. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Melgar in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Cerro Porteño is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cerro Porteño could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Melgar is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Copa Libertadores
27.02.25	FBC Melgar - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
23.02.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.02.25	Deportes Tolima - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
14.02.25	Cusco - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWWW
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.03.25	Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.02.25	Cerro Porteño - Monagas	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
23.02.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.02.25	Monagas - Cerro Porteño	0:4 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
15.02.25	Cerro Porteño - Deportivo Recoleta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLWW

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