Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 27 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	ESPN South
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	FBC Melgar		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.5	Watch
	2.23	2.99	3.73
	2.19	3.08	3.74	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.19	3.29	3.57	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.98)	3.07 ↓ (3.31)	3.55 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS 4

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
42.8%

Draw
30.7%

Deportes Tolima
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.8%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

26.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FBC Melgar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	18.7%	18.7%

FBC Melgar - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 7. Bordacahar C. 15. Orzan H. 24. Tandazo W. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 10. Martinez T. 11. Castro F.	22. Fiermarin C. (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 17. Torres M. 2. Angulo A. 20. Hernandez J. 18. Perez K. 15. Nieto J. (C) 80. Rovira B. 8. Valencia E. 11. Lencina G. 27. Ramirez G.
Substitutes
28. Arias A. 25. Barreda M. 20. Bernaola G. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 17. Liza P. 37. Pumacajia A. 4. Ramos E. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.	71. Arrieta C. 23. Castro A. 1. Cuesta W. (G) 28. Miranda L. 19. Mosquera F. 24. Parra Osorio A. 3. Quinones J. 6. Trujillo C. 33. Velasquez S.
Coaches
Ribonetto W.	Rescalvo I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Barrios P. 🟨,
35', Perez K. ↓, Miranda L. ↑,
45', Castro F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Nieto J. 🟨,
59', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
60', Torres M. 🟨,
62', Hernandez J. ↓, Velasquez S. ↑,
64', Martinez T. 🟨,
67', Castro F. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
78', Martinez T. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
78', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
79', Valencia E. ↓, Castro A. ↑,
79', Nieto J. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
80', Hurtado Torres Y. D. ↓, Parra Osorio A. ↑,
82', Bordacahar C. 🟨,
82', Rovira B. 🟨,
86', 1 - 0, Bordacahar C. (Pen),
88', Bordacahar C. ↓, Deneumostier A. ↑,
89', Castro A. 🟨,
90+2', Ramirez G. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Melgar in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Deportes Tolima is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Melgar will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Melgar won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
23.02.25	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.02.25	Deportes Tolima - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
14.02.25	Cusco - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.01.25	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Cuenca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWWWT
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
23.02.25	Deportes Tolima - América de Cali	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.02.25	Deportes Tolima - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
14.02.25	Deportivo Pereira - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Deportes Tolima - Alianza Valledupar	3:1 ✺
31.01.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
20.02.25	Deportes Tolima - FBC Melgar	0:1

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