Match Info

Championship - Round 1

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: Hardie R. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Ayr United Media
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ayr United		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.10	3.30
	2.05	3.00	3.20
	2.20	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.06	3.25	3.98
	2.1	3.19	3.64	Watch
	2.03	3.00	3.90
	2.17	3.28	3.49	Watch
	2.11	3.10	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.47)	3.12 ↑ (2.99)	3.53 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ayr United
44.1%

Draw
29.7%

Arbroath
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

31%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.5%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayr United's performance.

Arbroath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arbroath might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Ayr United - Arbroath Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ayr: 68.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stone H. (G) 32. Watret D. 20. McBeth L. 8. King L. 5. Holt K. 22. McKenzie M. 6. Lyon R. (C) 16. Summers B. 10. Shanks K. 7. Stirton O. 25. Mitchell K.	1. McAdams A. (G) 16. Watson C. 12. Stewart S. 5. O'Brien T. (C) 26. Mackie S. 20. Constable S. 14. McKenna M. 15. McGill S. 11. Dow R. 10. Reilly G. 9. Winter A.
Substitutes
3. Dick L. 34. Douglas J. 18. Hislop J. 15. Murphy J. 38. Russell L. (G) 11. Taylor R. 4. Want S. 26. Warbrick M.	18. Beattie C. 19. Daly C. 8. Flynn R. 7. Gold D. 3. Hamilton C. 21. Pettigrew J. (G) 17. Robinson S.
Coaches
Naysmith G.	Hamilton C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Shanks K. ↓, Taylor R. ↑,
44', 1 - 0, Summers B. ⚽, Mitchell K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', King L. ↓, Dick L. ↑,
65', Winter A. ↓, Robinson S. ↑,
65', McGill S. ↓, Flynn R. ↑,
75', Summers B. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
75', Mitchell K. ↓, Want S. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Taylor R. ⚽,
79', Dow R. ↓, Daly C. ↑,
86', Reilly G. ↓, Beattie C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 2.

Ayr has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arbroath's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ayr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:6. (average 1.8:0.6).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Ayr: 1.52% Arbroath: 1.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Ayr	9	3	2	4	9:10	-1	11
7	Arbroath	9	3	2	4	6:13	-7	11

Last Results with these Odds

Arbroath - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.62%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Ayr United - Alloa Athletic	4:1 ✺
18.07.26	Ayr United - Edinburgh City	2:0 ✺
14.07.26	Falkirk - Ayr United	0:1 ✺
11.07.26	Stranraer - Ayr United	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Ayr United - Airdrieonians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWWWW
- Arbroath
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Arbroath - Stirling Albion	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Arbroath - Montrose	0:2 ✺
18.07.26	Dundee United - Arbroath	3:0 ✺
11.07.26	Spartans - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
27.06.26	Arbroath - St. Mirren	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
11.04.26	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:0
03.03.26	Arbroath - Ayr United	1:1
15.11.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:1
01.08.25	Arbroath - Ayr United	1:1
Scottish League Cup
19.07.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	4:0
Scottish Football Championship
13.04.24	Ayr United - Arbroath	5:0
23.01.24	Ayr United - Arbroath	2:0

Upcoming Matches