Match Info

Championship - Round 33

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: Robertson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1
Maldives	Medianet
Norway	Viaplay
Scotland	BBC Scotland
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Usa	Paramount+


	Ayr United		Falkirk

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.2	1.95	Watch
	3.3	3.3	1.93
	3.9	3.2	1.99	Watch
	4.21	3.23	1.93	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.05
	3.95	3.37	2.06	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.29)	3.26 ↓ (3.44)	1.99 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ayr United
24.5%

Draw
28.6%

Falkirk
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

27%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

26.8%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Falkirk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Falkirk than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Ayr United - Falkirk Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Falkirk will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Falkirk: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayr (votes: 2 - 40%). Falkirk (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Falkirk (3.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Falkirk (3.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayr (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Falkirk (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Stone H. (G) 2. McAllister N. 14. Stanger G. 33. McMann S. 3. Reading P. 16. Hastie J. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 10. McLennan C. 23. Rus M. 30. Main C. 9. Oakley G.	1. Hogarth N. (G) 20. Adams K. 6. Donaldson C. 5. Henderson L. 26. Mackie S. 21. Tait D. 8. Spencer B. 29. Miller C. 37. Arfield S. 23. Ross E. 18. Oliver G.
Substitutes
26. Agbaire L. 17. Henderson J. 22. McKenzie M. 36. McKinnon C. 15. Murphy J. 4. Musonda F. 1. Mutch R. (G) 21. Walker E.	11. Agyeman A. 25. Brophy E. 22. Graham L. 4. Lang T. 9. MacIver R. 31. Munro R. (G) 10. Nesbitt A. 16. Stewart B. 7. Thomson M.
Coaches
Brown S.	McGlynn J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Mackie S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tait D. 🟨,
51', Miller C. 🟨,
62', Rus M. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
63', Hastie J. ↓, Henderson J. ↑,
63', McLennan C. ↓, McKinnon C. ↑,
65', Arfield S. ↓, Nesbitt A. ↑,
65', Oliver G. ↓, Stewart B. ↑,
73', Oakley G. ↓, Walker E. ↑,
75', Ross E. ↓, Agyeman A. ↑,
76', Main C. ↓, McKenzie M. ↑,
83', Donaldson C. ↓, Graham L. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Walker E. ⚽, McAllister N. (A),
90+3', Walker E. 🟨,
90+4', Walker E. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ayr won 2.

Ayr is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Falkirk is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Falkirk could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Falkirk will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Ayr won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 18:23 (average 0.9:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ayr won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:12 (average 1.2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
05.04.25	Raith Rovers - Ayr United	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic	3:0 ✺
22.03.25	Ayr United - Hamilton Academical	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LWTLL
- Falkirk FC
Scottish Football Championship
05.04.25	Falkirk - Greenock Morton	5:0 ✺
25.03.25	Livingston - Falkirk	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Falkirk - Airdrieonians	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Queens Park - Falkirk	0:4 ✺
08.03.25	Falkirk - Dunfermline Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
15.02.25	Falkirk - Ayr United	2:2
14.12.24	Ayr United - Falkirk	5:2
05.10.24	Falkirk - Ayr United	2:0
Scottish League Cup
16.07.24	Ayr United - Falkirk	1:0
Scottish Challenge Cup
05.09.23	Ayr United - Falkirk	0:1
Scottish Cup
13.03.23	Falkirk - Ayr United	2:1
Scottish League Cup
20.07.19	Ayr United - Falkirk	2:1

Upcoming Matches