Match Info

SCOTLAND: Championship - Round 30

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: Graham C. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Ayr United		Hamilton Academical

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.58	3.75	4.6
	1.59	3.9	5.4	Watch
	1.58	3.99	5.26
	1.64	3.82	5.12	Watch
	1.62	3.7	5.5
	1.62	3.84	4.89	Watch
	1.59	3.9	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.52)	3.83 ↓ (4.1)	5.18 ↓ (5.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
57.9%

Draw
24.2%

Hamilton Academical
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22.6%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

21.1%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Hamilton Academical has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamilton Academical than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Ayr United - Hamilton Academical Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Hamilton will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
61. Clarke J. (G) 4. Musonda F. 14. Stanger G. 26. Agbaire L. 33. McMann S. 17. Henderson J. 8. Dempsey B. 36. McKinnon C. 10. McLennan C. 9. Oakley G. 30. Main C.	21. Lyness D. (G) 22. Tumilty R. 6. McGowan D. 5. McGinty S. 3. Longridge J. 11. Bradley S. 14. Maguire B. 17. Robinson S. 25. Telfer Ch. 9. O'Hara K. 19. Shaw O.
Substitutes
16. Hastie J. 2. McAllister N. 22. McKenzie M. 15. Murphy J. 3. Reading P. 23. Rus M. 31. Stone H. (G) 21. Walker E. 32. Watret D.	1. Albinson C. (G) 10. Barjonas J. 7. Henderson E. 4. Kilday L. 16. MacDonald K. 24. McKinstry S. 18. Todorov N.
Coaches
Brown S.	Rankin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', McGinty S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Musonda F. ↓, Watret D. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Shaw O. ⚽, Bradley S. (A),
66', McKinnon C. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
68', O'Hara K. 🟨,
74', Robinson S. 🟨,
78', Oakley G. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
78', McLennan C. ↓, Walker E. ↑,
80', Bradley S. ↓, MacDonald K. ↑,
82', Shaw O. 🟨,
85', Walker E. 🟨,
88', Rus M. 🟨,
89', Shaw O. ↓, Barjonas J. ↑,
90+3', Lyness D. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Walker E. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ayr won 5.

Recent matches Ayr is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hamilton is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Ayr is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Ayr won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24:12 (average 1.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Ayr won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:7 (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
15.03.25	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	2:1 ✺
04.03.25	Queens Park - Ayr United	2:3 ✺
01.03.25	Ayr United - Airdrieonians	4:1 ✺
22.02.25	Ayr United - Livingston	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWWL
- Hamilton Academical
Scottish Football Championship
15.03.25	Hamilton Academical - Greenock Morton	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Airdrieonians - Hamilton Academical	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Hamilton Academical - Falkirk	2:2 ✺
25.02.25	Hamilton Academical - Dunfermline Athletic	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Raith Rovers - Hamilton Academical	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
01.02.25	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	0:2
17.08.24	Ayr United - Hamilton Academical	3:2
03.08.24	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	0:2
18.03.23	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	0:2
07.01.23	Ayr United - Hamilton Academical	1:0
11.11.22	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	2:3
13.08.22	Ayr United - Hamilton Academical	2:2

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