Match Info

SCOTLAND: Championship - Round 25

Date: 22 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: Robertson D. (Sco)


	Ayr United		Livingston

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.33	2.95	2.95	Watch
	2.36	3.15	3.23
	2.35	3.13	3.13	Watch
	2.4	3	3.1
	2.31	3.06	3.1	Watch
	2.33	2.95	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.23)	3.06 ↓ (3.31)	3.05 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
39.5%

Draw
30.2%

Livingston
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

27.8%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

28.7%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Livingston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livingston than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Ayr United - Livingston Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Livingston will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mutch R. (G) 14. Stanger G. 26. Agbaire L. 33. McMann S. 2. McAllister N. 10. McLennan C. 8. Dempsey B. 15. Murphy J. 3. Reading P. 9. Oakley G. 17. Henderson J.	28. Prior J. (G) 21. Nottingham M. 5. McGowan R. 27. Wilson D. 8. Pittman S. 23. Muirhead R. 12. Brandon J. 25. Tait M. 26. Montano C. 17. May S. 9. Yengi T.
Substitutes
16. Hastie J. 30. Main C. 22. McKenzie M. 36. McKinnon C. 4. Musonda F. 23. Rus M. 31. Stone H. (G) 21. Walker E. 32. Watret D.	3. Clarke M. 19. Finlayson D. 11. Fraser R. 14. Hamilton J. (G) 10. Kelly S. 6. McAlear R. 22. Shinnie A. 15. Smith L. 20. Ubochioma M.
Coaches
Brown S.	Martindale D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Wilson D. ⚽, Muirhead R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', McAllister N. ↓, Main C. ↑,
59', Prior J. 🟨,
61', Henderson J. ↓, Hastie J. ↑,
61', McKinnon C. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Rus M. ⚽,
79', Pittman S. 🟨,
82', May S. ↓, Shinnie A. ↑,
90+5', McMann S. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Muirhead R. ⚽,
90+7', Tait M. ↓, Finlayson D. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ayr won 1.

Ayr is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Livingston is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Ayr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Ayr won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ayr won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Ayr United - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.32%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
15.02.25	Falkirk - Ayr United	2:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
07.02.25	Ayr United - Hibernian	0:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
01.02.25	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	0:2 ✺
25.01.25	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	2:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
18.01.25	Broxburn Athletic - Ayr United	0:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TLWWW
- Livingston FC
Scottish Football Championship
15.02.25	Livingston - Dunfermline Athletic	0:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
08.02.25	Livingston - Cove Rangers	3:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
05.02.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Livingston	0:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
31.01.25	Falkirk - Livingston	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Livingston - Hamilton Academical	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
21.12.24	Livingston - Ayr United	0:1
19.10.24	Ayr United - Livingston	1:2
Scottish League Cup
19.08.23	Livingston - Ayr United	2:0
28.11.20	Livingston - Ayr United	4:0
16.07.19	Livingston - Ayr United	2:1
26.07.16	Livingston - Ayr United	0:2
Scottish Football Championship
14.04.12	Livingston - Ayr United	N/A

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