Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV, Mola
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV4
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter


	Bahia		América de Cali

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.5	Watch
	1.55	4	5.75
	1.52	3.7	6.4	Watch
	1.55	3.98	6.76
				Watch
	1.53	3.8	6
	1.54	3.95	6.31	Watch
	1.94	3.35	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.96)	3.83 ↑ (3.46)	5.92 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
59.3%

Draw
24.7%

América de Cali
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

27.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26.5%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.

América de Cali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América de Cali might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bahia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América de Cali than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América de Cali could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Bahia - América de Cali Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Bahia (1.92) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - América de Cali (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bahia will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 6 - 75%). América de Cali (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 13. Arias S. 3. Gabriel Xavier 21. Ramos S. (C) 46. Luciano Juba 11. Rodrigo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 15. Michel Araujo 8. Cauly 17. Rodriguez L. 16. Erick Pulga	12. Soto J. (C) 13. Castillo M. 6. Tovar C. 24. Pestana J. 14. Mina D. 77. Gonzalez K. 5. Escobar J. 21. Navarro S. 33. Romero J. 9. Ramos L. 7. Barrios C.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 19. Caio Alexandre 33. David Duarte 10. Everton Ribeiro 83. Fred Lippert 2. Gilberto 25. Iago Borduchi 6. Jean Lucas 37. Kayky 96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme	31. Bertel O. 2. Bocanegra D. 8. Borrero D. 29. Cavadia J. 36. Garces Y. 22. Holgado R. 17. Lucumi J. 4. Mosquera A. 11. Murillo J. 19. Paz L. 27. Silva S. (G) 47. Sinisterra A. (G)
Coaches
Mucke R.	Raimondi D. G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Castillo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodrigo ↓, Kayky ↑,
46', Castillo M. ↓, Bocanegra D. ↑,
57', Barrios C. ↓, Borrero D. ↑,
59', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
59', Rodriguez L. ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
59', Cauly ↓, Ademir ↑,
65', Ramos L. ↓, Holgado R. ↑,
66', Gonzalez K. ↓, Cavadia J. ↑,
67', Navarro S. 🟨,
76', Navarro S. ↓, Paz L. ↑,
83', Erick Pulga ↓, Tiago ↑,
90+2', Everton Ribeiro 🟥,
90+2', Soto J. 🟨,
90+2', Pestana J. 🟨,
90+2', Mina D. 🟨,
90+3', Gabriel Xavier 🟨,
90+7', Cavadia J. 🟥,

Preview

1st leg.

Bahia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

América de Cali has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bahia is a strong favorite.

We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Bahia - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
04.06.25	Confiança - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWWL
- América de Cali
Colombian Primera A
11.07.25	Llaneros SA - América de Cali	0:0 ✺
19.06.25	América de Cali - Independiente Medellín	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Junior Barranquilla - América de Cali	0:1 ✺
12.06.25	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:3 ✺
07.06.25	Deportes Tolima - América de Cali	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTWLT

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