Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 26

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal Cicero De Souza Marques (Bragança Paulista)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Red Bull Bragantino		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.50	3.70	Watch
	2.00	3.60	3.50
	2.06	3.40	3.45
	2.07	3.66	3.68
	2.12	3.61	3.35	Watch
	2.04	3.60	3.60
	2.03	3.73	3.56	Watch
	2.03	3.45	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.08)	3.57 ↑ (3.33)	3.54 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Bragantino
46.6%

Draw
26.6%

Bahia
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. RB Bragantino will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Tiago Volpi (G) 34. Hurtado A. 4. Alix Vinicius (C) 16. Gustavo Marques 29. Juninho Capixaba 5. Fabinho 20. Rodriguinho 32. Herrera J. 21. Lucas Barbosa 11. Fernando Santos 47. Wallace Yan	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 46. Luciano Juba 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 31. Gomez R. 14. Erick 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 11. Rodrigo 99. Olivera C. 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
51. Caue Nascimento 1. Cleiton (G) 7. Eric Ramires 6. Gabriel 22. Gustavo Neves 67. Jhuan 35. Matheus Fernandes 30. Mosquera H. 14. Pedro Henrique 2. Rodriguez G. 52. Tavares R. 17. Vinicinho	7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 10. Everton Ribeiro 17. Herrera G. (G) 6. Jean Lucas 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 77. Ruan Pablo 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
14', 1 - 0, Lucas Barbosa ⚽, Wallace Yan (A),
34', 1 - 1, Luciano Juba (Penalty Awarded),
38', 1 - 2, Veliz A. ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
43', Fernando Santos 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 2, Ramos S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 2 - 3, Erick ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
51', Erick 🟨,
62', Luciano Juba 🟨,
68', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
68', Herrera J. ↓, Mosquera H. ↑,
68', Erick ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
78', Rodrigo ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
78', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
82', Veliz A. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
82', Hurtado A. ↓, Tavares R. ↑,
82', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Jhuan ↑,
82', Wallace Yan ↓, Vinicinho ↑,
90+4', Rodriguinho ↓, Gustavo Neves ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 1.

RB Bragantino has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bahia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

RB Bragantino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes (Knee Injury) Pitta I. (Yellow Cards) Sant'Anna A. (Yellow Cards) Vanderlan (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Everaldo (Red Card) Everton Ribeiro (Inactive) Leo Vieira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in RB Bragantino: Eduardo Sasha (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Bragantino won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:8. (average 2:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37

Last Results with these Odds

Red Bull Bragantino - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.76%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Bahia - the odds 3.42 are the expected chance of winning is 27.27%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
29.08.26	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
12.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWTTL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Bahia - Internacional RS	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:3 ✺
09.08.26	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
29.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.03.26	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0
02.11.25	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1
12.06.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	0:3
01.09.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:1
12.05.24	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0
20.08.23	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	4:0
15.04.23	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:1

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