Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero (Cali)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	América de Cali		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	4.5	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4
	1.92	3.15	4.25
	1.99	3.18	4.44
	1.92	3.24	4.26	Watch
	1.95	3	4
	1.93	3.13	4.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (1.98)	3.13 ↑ (3.12)	4.24 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América de Cali
48.3%

Draw
29.8%

Deportes Tolima
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

29.9%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

28.6%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América de Cali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América de Cali than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

América de Cali - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean (G) 13. Castillo M. 2. Torres M. 22. Hernandez N. 30. Bertel O. 17. Lucumi J. 15. Carrascal R. (C) 5. Escobar J. 19. Palacios J. 9. Valencia D. 10. Guzman Y.	1. Neto Volpi (G) 17. Arrieta C. 80. Rovira B. (C) 5. Mera J. 20. Hernandez J. 32. Guzman S. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 18. Florez K. 24. Parra Osorio A. 9. Sandoval L.
Substitutes
29. Amu C. 21. Angel T. 6. Cavadia J. 16. Correa B. 11. Machis D. 4. Mosquera A. 20. Ramos A. 25. Romero J. 12. Soto J. (G)	22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 21. Parra Y. A. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 14. Ricardo E. 19. Santiago J. 11. Valencia J. 25. Zapata N.
Coaches
Gonzalez D.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Parra Osorio A. ⚽, Gonzalez J. (A),
15', Sandoval L. 🟨,
17', Guzman S. 🟨,
27', Hernandez N. ↓, Mosquera A. ↑,
34', Arrieta C. 🟨,
45+2', Torres Patino J. P. (Penalty Awarded),
45+4', Escobar J. 🟨,
45+4', Rovira B. 🟨,
45+5', Palacios J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Florez K. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
46', Mosquera A. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Castillo M. ⚽, Carrascal R. (A),
60', Hernandez J. ↓, Pedrozo D. ↑,
60', Sandoval L. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
60', Valencia D. ↓, Angel T. ↑,
69', Torres Patino J. P. 🟨,
73', Gonzalez J. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
78', Lucumi J. ↓, Machis D. ↑,
78', Castillo M. ↓, Correa B. ↑,
78', Palacios J. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,
79', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Reyes V. ↑,
83', Parra Osorio A. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América de Cali won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, América de Cali is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, América de Cali won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, América de Cali won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	America De Cali	12	8	3	1	24:7	17	27
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20

Last Results with these Odds

América de Cali - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 46.96%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América de Cali
Colombian Primera A
09.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - América de Cali	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	América de Cali - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
28.02.26	Alianza Valledupar - América de Cali	0:3 ✺
22.02.26	América de Cali - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:0 ✺
18.02.26	Junior Barranquilla - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWWL
- Deportes Tolima
Copa Libertadores
11.03.26	Deportes Tolima - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Táchira	1:1 penalties ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
09.08.25	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	0:1
12.06.25	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:3
07.06.25	Deportes Tolima - América de Cali	1:1
23.02.25	Deportes Tolima - América de Cali	0:0
01.12.24	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	4:2
27.11.24	Deportes Tolima - América de Cali	1:0
11.09.24	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:0

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