Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 38

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Peru	L1 Max
World	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Atlético Goianiense

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	7	Watch
	1.47	4.4	6.75
	1.42	4.75	7	Watch
	1.43	4.83	7.22
	1.44	4.69	7.06	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7.5
	1.43	4.8	6.9	Watch
	1.42	4.75	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.45)	4.72 ↑ (4.6)	7.05 ↑ (6.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
66.5%

Draw
20.1%

Atlético Goianiense
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

20.5%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

19.6%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Atlético Goianiense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Goianiense than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Bahia - Atlético Goianiense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Atlético GO will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 2. Gilberto 3. Gabriel Xavier 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 16. Thaciano 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 7. Ademir 17. Rodriguez L.	1. Ronaldo Strada (C) 2. Maguinho 3. Adriano Martins 4. Alix Vinicius 6. Guilherme Romao 5. Freitas G. 8. Roni 7. Rhaldney 10. Shaylon 11. Cruz A. 9. Derek
Substitutes
23. Adriel (G) 13. Arias S. 11. Biel 8. Cauly 40. Cicinho 14. de Pena C. 9. Everaldo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 31. Vitor Hugo 20. Yago Felipe	13. Haller R. 18. Janderson 20. Jan Hurtado 17. Lacava M. 15. Luiz Felipe 16. Luiz Gustavo 14. Pedro Henrique 19. Pedro Paranhos 12. Pedro Rangel (G)
Coaches
Rogerio Ceni	Gomes A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Shaylon ↓, Janderson ↑,
39', Freitas G. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Thaciano ⚽, Ademir (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rhaldney ↓, Lacava M. ↑,
58', 2 - 0, Rodriguez L. (Pen),
60', Freitas G. ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
60', Adriano Martins ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
66', Thaciano ↓, Biel ↑,
67', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
71', Ademir ↓, Everaldo ↑,
71', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Cauly ↑,
74', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
76', Derek ↓, Jan Hurtado ↑,
79', Jean Lucas ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
90+2', Yago Felipe 🟨,
90+5', Everaldo 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Atlético GO is Relegated to Serie B

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bahia won 0.

Bahia is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Atlético GO is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Atlético GO could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bahia is certain favorite.

There will not play in Atlético GO: Jorginho (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Iago (Muscle Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Bahia won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:13 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:5 (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.24	Corinthians - Bahia	3:0 ✺
30.11.24	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:2 ✺
24.11.24	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
20.11.24	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
09.11.24	Juventude - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTLL
- Atlético Goianiense
Brazilian Serie A
04.12.24	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
30.11.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
23.11.24	Atlético Goianiense - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
20.11.24	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Goianiense	2:0 ✺
09.11.24	Atlético Goianiense - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
24.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Bahia	1:1
29.11.21	Atlético Goianiense - Bahia	2:1
15.08.21	Bahia - Atlético Goianiense	1:2
10.01.21	Atlético Goianiense - Bahia	1:1
13.09.20	Bahia - Atlético Goianiense	0:1
11.09.17	Atlético Goianiense - Bahia	1:1
05.06.17	Bahia - Atlético Goianiense	3:0

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