Match Info

Date: 25 June 2022, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Henrique M. (Bra)


	Bahia		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	3.1	5.5
	1.73	3	5.4	Watch
	1.69	3.15	5.6
	1.72	3.34	6.46
	1.75	3	5.8
	1.72	3.22	6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.62)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	5.79 ↓ (6.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
54.2%

Draw
29.7%

Grêmio Novorizontino
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

27.5%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

26.5%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bahia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.8%	6.1%	4.1%

Bahia - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (44 of 49 users predict this - 89.8%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.33% – 98.27%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 16).

Recent matches Bahia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Novorizontino has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Novorizontino could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bahia have a series of home games.

In this match Bahia is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Copa do Brasil
22.06.22	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
14.06.22	Bahia - Chapecoense	0:1 ✺
11.06.22	Operário Ferroviario - Bahia	0:1 ✺
08.06.22	Bahia - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
04.06.22	Bahia - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
18.06.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Tombense	1:3 ✺
12.06.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	1:2 ✺
07.06.22	Grêmio - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
04.06.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sampaio Corrêa	0:0 ✺
28.05.22	CS Alagoano - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

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