The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Bahia 76.2%
Draw 15.8%
Chapecoense 8.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
59.8%
24.2%
15.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
60.5%
23.9%
15.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.
Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chapecoense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-15.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bahia that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chapecoense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
87.5%
12.5%
0%
Bahia - Chapecoense Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
BTTS - yes (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH +1 - Chapecoense (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Bahia will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 66. Ze Guilherme 5. Nicolas Acevedo 14. Erick (C) 11. Rodrigo 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 16. Erick Pulga
30. Matheus Aurelio (G) 2. Marcos Vinicius 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 91. Bruno Pacheco 3. Eduardo Doma 16. Bruno Matias 27. Camilo Reijers 97. Enio 10. Giovanni Augusto 7. Marcinho 11. Bolasie Y.
Substitutes
8. Caio Alexandre 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 25. Iago Borduchi 6. Jean Lucas 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 46. Luciano Juba 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 91. Neres dos Santos I. J. C. (G) 23. Sanabria M.
33. Bruno Leonardo 19. David Antunes 26. Everton 50. Kassio 21. Kauan 6. Mancha 18. Neto Pessoa 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi 17. Vinicius Balieiro
Coaches
Mucke R.
Rafael Lacerda
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Rodrigo (Penalty Awarded),
34', 2 - 0, Gomez R. ⚽, David Duarte (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bruno Matias ↓, Vinicius Balieiro ↑,
46', Enio ↓, Neto Pessoa ↑,
63', Marcinho ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
63', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Everton ↑,
64', Ze Guilherme 🟨,
67', Ademir ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
67', Willian Jose ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
79', Erick Pulga ↓, Everaldo ↑,
79', Rodrigo ↓, Jean Lucas ↑,
81', Camilo Reijers ↓, David Antunes ↑,
83', Luciano Juba 🟨,
88', David Duarte ↓, Marcos Victor ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Bahia has had a series of away games.
In this match, Bahia is considered a favorite.
There will not play in Bahia: Kanu
(Injury)
Ruan Pablo
(Injury)
There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias
(Knee Injury)
Mancha
(Knee Injury)
Rafael Thyere
(Inactive)
Robert Conceicao
(Inactive)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 0.9:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).
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Ronaldo Strada (G) 
Gomez R. 
Nicolas Acevedo 
Bolasie Y. 
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