Match Info

Date: 3 May 2022, Tuesday


	Bahia		Londrina

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.5	6.25
	1.52	3.4	6.75
	1.51	3.7	6.4
	1.56	3.75	7.55
	1.53	3.6	6.5
	1.51	3.82	7.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.96)	3.63 ↑ (3)	6.81 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
60.7%

Draw
25.6%

Londrina
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

30.8%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

29.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.

Londrina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Londrina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bahia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Londrina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	3.5%	7%

Bahia - Londrina Predictions

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (102 of 114 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.84% – 95.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 12).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Londrina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bahia is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Bahia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Bahia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie B
29.04.22	Ituano - Bahia	1:0 ✺
26.04.22	Bahia - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
22.04.22	CS Alagoano - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.04.22	Bahia - Azuriz	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
15.04.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWTTW
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
29.04.22	Londrina - Vila Nova	2:2 ✺
26.04.22	Cruzeiro - Londrina	1:0 ✺
21.04.22	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
14.04.22	Criciúma - Londrina	1:0 ✺
10.04.22	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
25.04.19	Londrina - Bahia	2:1
18.04.19	Bahia - Londrina	4:0
Brazilian Serie B
04.10.16	Londrina - Bahia	1:0
18.06.16	Bahia - Londrina	1:2

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