Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 31 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.1	5	Watch
	1.88	3.1	4.8
	1.9	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.94	3.31	4.72
	1.9	3.3	4.54	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.6
	1.92	3.3	4.41	Watch
	1.9	3.25	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.04)	3.21 ↓ (3.22)	4.51 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
49.3%

Draw
29.6%

São Paulo
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

29.3%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

30.7%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	13%	8.7%

Bahia - São Paulo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - São Paulo (3.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - São Paulo (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 5 - 55.6%). São Paulo (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 6. Jean Lucas 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 16. Erick Pulga	23. Rafael (G) 6. Soares C. 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 21. Bobadilla D. 29. Pablo Maia 13. Diaz E. 48. Lucas Ferreira 10. Luciano 49. Ryan Francisco
Substitutes
13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 83. Fred Lippert 3. Gabriel Xavier 25. Iago Borduchi 37. Kayky 15. Michel Araujo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 17. Rodriguez L. 96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 77. Tiago	43. Felipe Negrucci 32. Ferraresi N. 28. Franco A. 37. Henrique Carmo 93. Jandrei (G) 12. Leandro Mathias (G) 45. Lucca Marques 42. Maik 47. Matheus Alves 36. Patryck 39. Paulinho 15. Rodriguinho
Coaches
Mucke R.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽, Erick Pulga (A),
59', Luciano 🟨,
68', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
68', Ademir ↓, Kayky ↑,
68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
68', Wendell ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
69', Soares C. ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Willian Jose (Pen),
78', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Luciano (Pen),
87', Kayky 🟨,
87', Pablo Maia ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
89', Gilberto ↓, Arias S. ↑,
90+3', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
90+8', Rodriguinho 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.

Recent performances by Bahia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of home games.

Bahia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Rezende (Back Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Alisson (Yellow Cards) Andre Silva (Yellow Cards) Ferreira (Foot Injury) Igor Vinicius (Back Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Lucca Marques (Ankle Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Oscar (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Ruan Tressoldi (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:23. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Copa Libertadores
28.05.25	Internacional RS - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Grêmio - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Bahia - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWWL
- São Paulo FC
Copa Libertadores
27.05.25	São Paulo - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.11.24	Bahia - São Paulo	0:3
30.06.24	São Paulo - Bahia	3:1
29.11.23	Bahia - São Paulo	0:1
30.07.23	São Paulo - Bahia	0:0
07.11.21	Bahia - São Paulo	1:0
10.07.21	São Paulo - Bahia	1:0
28.11.20	Bahia - São Paulo	1:3

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