Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Austria	23:30	DAZN
Brazil	18:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	16:30	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	23:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	00:30	Sport 3
Kosovo	23:30	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	15:30	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
North Macedonia	23:30	Arena Premium 1
Portugal	22:30	Canal 11
Serbia	23:30	Arena Premium 1
Spain	23:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Suriname	18:30	QN Sports, SCCN
Switzerland	23:30	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United Kingdom	22:30	Premier Sports 1
Usa	17:30	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.30	3.70	2.05
	3.2	3.45	2.05	Watch
	3.41	3.79	2.13
	3.15	3.85	2.13
	3.35	3.75	2.1
	3.26	3.82	2.12	Watch
	3.25	3.55	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.93)	3.68 ↑ (3.46)	2.09 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
28.7%

Draw
25.8%

Flamengo
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.9%

27%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

26.1%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Bahia - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 44. Marcos Victor 33. David Duarte 3. Moreno M. 46. Luciano Juba 6. Jean Lucas 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 11. Rodrigo 99. Olivera C. 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira (C) 22. Emerson Royal 21. Jorginho 5. Pulgar E. 19. Plata G. 15. Carrascal J. 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro
Substitutes
7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 31. Gomez R. 17. Herrera G. (G) 4. Kanu 15. Michel Araujo 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme	26. Alex Sandro 27. Bruno Henrique 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 30. Freitas J. 77. Goes J. 61. Joao Souza 11. Lucas Paqueta 7. Luiz Araujo 14. Valencia A. 44. Vitao
Coaches
Mucke R.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Pulgar E. 🟨,
41', Olivera C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
48', Leo Pereira 🟨,
51', Jean Lucas 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Jorginho (Penalty Awarded),
65', Olivera C. ↓, Ademir ↑,
65', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
65', Marcos Victor ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
68', Carrascal J. ↓, Lucas Paqueta ↑,
73', 0 - 2, Plata G. ⚽, Samuel Lino (A),
75', Rodrigo ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
75', Erick Pulga ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
75', Samuel Lino ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
76', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
78', 0 - 3, Lucas Paqueta ⚽, Varela G. (A),
83', Pulgar E. ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
83', Leo Ortiz ↓, Vitao ↑,
86', Moreno M. 🟨,
89', Gomez R. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.

In recent outings, Bahia has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Flamengo shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Flamengo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Flamengo holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Bahia: Leo Vieira (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Flamengo: Ayrton Lucas (Thigh Injury) Danilo (Inactive) Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Wrist Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Bahia has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 16 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:41 (averaging 0.9:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bahia against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with 11:18 goals (averaging 1.1:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	32	21	7	4	64:27	37	70
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	45:40	5	50

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 66.29%

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.9%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Bahia - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Bahia - Remo	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLWW
- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
15.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.26	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	2:0
05.10.25	Bahia - Flamengo	1:0
10.05.25	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0
05.10.24	Bahia - Flamengo	0:2
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0
28.08.24	Bahia - Flamengo	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
20.06.24	Flamengo - Bahia	2:1

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