Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	16:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	14:30	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Usa	15:30	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.30	3.30	3.10
	2.22	3.2	3.15	Watch
	2.3	3.4	3.34
	2.35	3.43	3.04	Watch
	2.25	3.35	3.3
	2.37	3.28	3.18	Watch
	2.28	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.31)	3.31 ↑ (3.26)	3.18 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
41.5%

Draw
28.7%

São Paulo
29.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.5%

28.8%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.6%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Mirassol - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 50%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 25. Neto Moura 27. Denilson 95. Edson Carioca 33. Eduardo 77. Alesson 30. Bruno Santos	23. Rafael (G) 28. Newton 5. Robert Arboleda 54. Luis Osorio 32. Pedro Lima 48. Djhordney 8. Marcos Antonio 12. Iago Borduchi 7. Lucas Moura 16. Bobadilla D. 10. Luciano (C)
Substitutes
96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 17. Fernandinho 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 19. Gustavo Silva 5. Japa 2. Lucas Oliveira 7. Shaylon 90. Thomazella (G) 80. Wallisson 99. Ze Roberto	17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 45. Lucca Marques 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 43. Santana G. 2. Toloi R. 27. Victor Sa 18. Wendell
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Rafael (Own goal),
17', Djhordney 🟨,
26', Iago Borduchi 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Pedro Lima ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Eduardo 🟨,
64', Lucas Moura ↓, Santana G. ↑,
64', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
67', Neto Moura ↓, Shaylon ↑,
67', Bruno Santos ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
67', Denilson ↓, Wallisson ↑,
70', Willian Machado 🟨,
74', Alesson ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
77', Djhordney ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
77', Iago Borduchi ↓, Lucas Ramon ↑,
78', Eduardo ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
83', Wallisson 🟨,
87', Bobadilla D. ↓, Victor Sa ↑,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14th and 9th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 3.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

São Paulo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, São Paulo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Mirassol: Andre Luis (Yellow Cards) Negueba (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for São Paulo: Bosshardt N. (Inactive) Buta (Knee Injury) Cauly (Inactive) Duarte D. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Mirassol: Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for São Paulo: Ferreira (Injury).

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:26 (averaging 1.2:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mirassol against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 8:7 goals (averaging 1.3:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37:36	1	43
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37:45	-8	37

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.73%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
16.10.26	Mirassol - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Bahia - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
07.10.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Mirassol - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLTWT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.26	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
07.10.26	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	São Paulo - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	São Paulo - Mirassol	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.01.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0
24.05.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.02.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	4:1
23.01.24	Mirassol - São Paulo	1:1
13.03.22	Mirassol - São Paulo	0:3

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