Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 5

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Clarke T. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, Nifl TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Larne		Glentoran

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	2.87
	2.30	3.20	2.70
	2.30	3.40	3.20
	2.37	3.26	2.8	Watch
	2.25	3.30	3.10
	2.29	3.22	3.12
	2.31	3.20	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.15)	3.26 ↑ (3.2)	2.95 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Larne
40.3%

Draw
28.4%

Glentoran
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.4%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

27.6%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Glentoran has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Glentoran than the current prediction. (-3%)

Larne - Glentoran Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 26. Bent D. 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 15. Doherty R. 4. Donnelly A. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 30. Lusty M. 9. O'Neill P. 3. Ridley M. 25. Sloan D.	31. Francis Crellin W. (G) 2. Cooney R. 44. Douglas J. 19. Gallagher B. 3. Kane M. 5. Kelly J. 8. McEneff A. 24. McMenamin C. 16. Schilte-Brown E. 27. Singleton J. 10. Stewart J.
Substitutes
16. Carney J. (G) 45. Gibson M. 22. McEneff J. 19. O'Hara K. 8. Randall M. 47. Simpson J. 2. Wallace L.	7. Clarke R. 11. Daniels J. 30. Jenkins J. 20. Larmour D. 29. Malone J. 1. Mills A. (G) 41. Rogers-Duffy C.
Coaches
Haveron G.	Devine D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Kane M. 🟨,
34', Stewart J. 🟨,
41', Douglas J. 🟨,
42', Kelly J. ↓, Malone J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 1 - 0, Graham S. ⚽,
63', Gallagher B. ↓, Jenkins J. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Lusty M. ⚽,
79', Douglas J. ↓, Daniels J. ↑,
79', Graham S. ↓, Simpson J. ↑,
79', O'Neill P. ↓, O'Hara K. ↑,
82', Sloan D. ↓, McEneff J. ↑,
82', Doherty R. ↓, Randall M. ↑,
87', 🟨,
88', 2 - 1, McEneff A. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Lusty M. ↓, Gibson M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larne won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Glentoran may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Larne won 13 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 33:16. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Larne won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 1.5:0.4).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Larne: 29.31% Glentoran: 2.48%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Larne	6	5	1	0	12:3	9	16
4	Glentoran	10	5	1	4	15:10	5	16

Last Results with these Odds

Larne - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.28%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Larne - Lincoln Red Imps	0:3 AET ✺
20.08.26	Lincoln Red Imps - Larne	0:2 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
15.08.26	Coleraine - Larne	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.08.26	Iberia 1999 - Larne	2:1 AET ✺
04.08.26	Larne - Iberia 1999	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWTLT
- Glentoran
Northern Irish Premiership
29.08.26	Glentoran - Crusaders	1:2 ✺
21.08.26	Ballymena United - Glentoran	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	Linfield - Glentoran	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Glentoran - Limavady United	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	RFS - Glentoran	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
17.04.26	Glentoran - Larne	0:0
Northern Irish Cup
06.03.26	Glentoran - Larne	1:2 penalties
Northern Irish Premiership
10.02.26	Larne - Glentoran	2:2
13.01.26	Glentoran - Larne	1:4
12.12.25	Larne - Glentoran	1:0
26.04.25	Larne - Glentoran	0:0
18.03.25	Glentoran - Larne	2:2

Upcoming Matches