Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 19

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
World	Onefootball


	Larne		Linfield

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.92	3
	2.6	2.86	3.17
	2.47	2.97	3.06	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.42	2.86	2.97
	2.42	2.8	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.44)	2.89 ↓ (3.25)	3.03 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
37.5%

Draw
32.1%

Linfield
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

28.6%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

27.9%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Linfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Linfield than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

Larne - Linfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Larne will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Linfield will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 4. Donnelly A. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 7. McKendry C. 21. Millar L. 19. Nolan R. 10. O'Connor T. 8. Randall M. 3. Ridley M.	1. Johns Ch. (G) 26. Baird I. 24. Brown S. 29. Fitzpatrick M. 15. Hall B. 8. McClean K. 34. McCullough D. 27. McGee E. 7. Millar K. (C) 38. Morrison C. 2. Roscoe S.
Substitutes
36. Graham D. (G) 30. Lusty M. 14. Magee B. 22. McEneff J. 9. O'Neill P. 47. Simpson J. 46. Wallace L.	10. Allen C. 21. Archer J. 22. Mulgrew J. 32. Taylor S. 51. Walsh D. (G) 4. Whiteside S. 20. Yates M.
Coaches
Haveron G.	Healy D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Randall M. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
56', O'Connor T. ↓, McEneff J. ↑,
75', McKendry C. 🟨,
77', McKendry C. ↓, Lusty M. ↑,
87', Gallagher C. 🟨,
90', Fitzpatrick M. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larne won 2.

Larne is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Linfield is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Larne won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Larne won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
Northern Irish League Cup
02.12.25	Ballymena United - Larne	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
29.11.25	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Coleraine - Larne	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Larne - Glenavon	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Larne - Portadown	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWWWW
- Linfield FC
Northern Irish League Cup
02.12.25	Newry City - Linfield	2:3 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
29.11.25	Linfield - Carrick Rangers	3:1 ✺
25.11.25	Linfield - Crusaders	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Bangor - Linfield	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Linfield - Coleraine	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
18.04.25	Larne - Linfield	2:1
11.02.25	Linfield - Larne	1:0
16.11.24	Larne - Linfield	0:1
14.09.24	Linfield - Larne	0:1
22.04.24	Linfield - Larne	1:1
30.12.23	Larne - Linfield	1:1
Northern Irish League Cup
05.12.23	Larne - Linfield	2:3 penalties

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