Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	2.75
	2.42	2.98	2.92
	2.67	3.05	2.95
	2.19	3.19	3.34	Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.8
	2.59	3.01	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.23)	2.97 ↓ (3.23)	2.94 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
37.3%

Draw
31.1%

Barakaldo
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

28.8%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Barakaldo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Ponferradina - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 2. Andujar D. 3. Novoa G. 19. Lopez A. 10. Valle B. (C) 22. Esquerdo V. 16. Frimpong E. 7. Calderon C. 20. Ferrer P. 18. Vazquez B.	13. Campos G. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 18. Arana M. 4. Dufur U. 16. Lopez O. 15. Castillo I. 5. Molina E. (C) 8. Huidobro J. 7. Pedernales I. 19. Galarza A. 17. de Leon J.
Substitutes
25. Barredo P. (G) 14. Fernandez X. 27. Iriarte X. 17. Keita A. 12. Koke 26. Kysil V. 4. Moltenis B. 11. Petkov S. 8. Slavy 15. Sousa V.	23. Albizua U. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 20. Mandiang S. 14. Munoz I. 11. Perez E. 24. Ropero I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Esquerdo V. ⚽,
31', Lopez O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lopez O. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
55', Arana M. 🟨,
72', Huidobro J. ↓, Mandiang S. ↑,
72', Galarza A. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
72', de Leon J. ↓, Sabin ↑,
78', de Jesus B. ↓, Albizua U. ↑,
86', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 8 and 6)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ponferradina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ponferradina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.58%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.26	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	4:1 ✺
29.03.26	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Ponferradina - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Cacereño - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWTWT
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.26	Barakaldo - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Pontevedra - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Barakaldo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:0
07.02.25	Ponferradina - Barakaldo	0:1
17.11.24	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:1

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