Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Colombia	ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Barcelona Guayaquil		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.8
	2.58	2.98	2.82	Watch
	2.67	3.1	2.89
	2.69	3.11	2.78	Watch
	2.6	2.9	2.75	Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.96)	3.07 ↓ (3.1)	2.8 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
36%

Draw
30.5%

Botafogo RJ
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

30.2%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.4%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Barcelona (1.80) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Botafogo (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 3 - 60%). Botafogo (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 33. Baez J. 14. Rangel A. 4. Vallecilla G. 8. Celiz M. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 21. Villalba H. 23. Martinez T. 10. Rojas J. (C) 9. Benedetto D.	24. Leo Linck (G) 2. Vitinho 4. Ponte M. 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles (C) 14. Barrera J. 8. Danilo 28. Newton 10. Montoro A. 11. Matheus Martins
Substitutes
26. Castillo B. 22. Cevallos J. (G) 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 7. Gomez J. 12. Mina J. 5. Montano C. 80. Nunez S. 11. Parrales M. 15. Perlaza J. 3. Sosa L. 27. Vargas W. 51. Wila J.	19. Arthur Cabral 48. Arthur Novaes 45. Caio Valle 30. Correa J. 67. Hernandez J. 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 16. Nathan Fernandes 1. Raul Steffens (G) 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 55. Wallace Davi 3. Ythallo
Coaches
Farias Acosta C. A.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Villalba H. ⚽,
44', Montoro A. 🟨,
45+1', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Rojas J. 🟨,
58', Benedetto D. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
58', Villalba H. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
64', Martinez T. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Matheus Martins ⚽, Barrera J. (A),
71', Ponte M. ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
76', Farias Acosta C. A. 🟥,
77', Matheus Martins ↓, Arthur Cabral ↑,
79', Celiz M. ↓, Montano C. ↑,
79', Rojas J. ↓, Wila J. ↑,
86', Barrera J. ↓, Correa J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Barcelona won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.07%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Argentinos Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Argentinos Juniors	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
28.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Boavista	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.02.26	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	Nacional Potosí - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
02.05.17	Botafogo RJ - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:2
20.04.17	Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ	1:1

Upcoming Matches