Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Orense		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	2.65	Watch
	2.37	3.1	2.65
	2.45	3.05	2.78
	2.62	3.2	2.95
	2.56	3.11	2.85	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.7
	2.58	3.03	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.72)	3.06 ↑ (2.99)	2.78 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orense
36.7%

Draw
30.1%

Barcelona Guayaquil
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

30.8%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

31.2%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 5. Lorenzo A. 45. Quinonez O. 15. Caicedo B. 25. Jaramilo R. 26. Molina N. 10. Burgoa V. 7. Vasquez S. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S. 11. Herrera A.	1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 33. Baez J. 14. Rangel A. 4. Vallecilla G. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. (C) 7. Gomez J. 32. Lugo M. 21. Villalba H. 8. Celiz M. 9. Benedetto D.
Substitutes
8. Armas D. 19. Bermudez M. 17. Caicedo E. 9. Charpentier P. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 4. Quinonez S. 21. Rostagno G. 77. Vinan B.	63. Caidedo K. 26. Castillo B. 22. Cevallos J. (G) 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 35. Intriago J. 23. Martinez T. 70. Mejia M. 5. Montano C. 11. Parrales M. 15. Perlaza J. 27. Vargas W. 51. Wila J.
Coaches
Arguello F.	Farias Acosta C. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Benedetto D. ⚽, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. (A),
44', Caicedo B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Jaramilo R. 🟨,
64', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 🟨,
65', Quinonez O. 🟨,
65', Molina N. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
65', Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↓, Wila J. ↑,
65', Gomez J. ↓, Intriago J. ↑,
66', Benedetto D. ↓, Parrales M. ↑,
75', Villalba H. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,
79', Herrera A. ↓, Bermudez M. ↑,
79', Jaramilo R. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ⚽, Quinonez O. (A),
84', Burgoa V. ↓, Rostagno G. ↑,
84', Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
85', Celiz M. ↓, Caidedo K. ↑,
90+5', Intriago J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Orense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Orense won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.6:1.4).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	32:25	7	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Orense	1:3 ✺
18.04.26	Orense - Delfín	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Orense - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	SD Aucas - Orense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTWLL
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.12.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	2:1
09.11.25	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:2
02.08.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	2:0
14.04.25	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1
17.08.24	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:2
16.03.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - Orense	0:0
29.10.23	Orense - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:3

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