Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Independiente del Valle		River Plate

	1	X	2
	2.6	3	3	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.55	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.54	3.01	3.2
	2.44	3	3.11
	2.3	3	3.1	Watch
	2.74	3	2.83	Watch
	2.55	2.98	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.46)	3.01 ↓ (3.17)	3.04 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
37.7%

Draw
31.3%

River Plate
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

29.9%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

30.5%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	87.5%	0%

Independiente del Valle - River Plate Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Ind del Valle (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - River Plate (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 1 - 33.3%). River Plate (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 23. Santamaria T. 2. Zarate L. 14. Carabajal M. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 30. Ibarra R. 26. Cazares 7. Mercado P. 17. Rodriguez A. 77. Spinelli C.	1. Armani F. (G) 16. Bustos F. 6. Pezzella G. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 20. Casco M. 31. Simon S. 29. Aliendro R. 22. Castano K. 30. Mastantuono F. 15. Driussi S. 11. Colidio F.
Substitutes
21. Arroyo J. P. 15. Cortez G. 13. Fernandez M. 11. Hoyos M. 9. Medina J. 32. Mendez J. 31. Pata E. 4. Quinonez O. 1. Ramirez M. (G) 10. Sornoza J. 33. Velasco A. 18. Zabala C.	26. Fernandez N. 2. Gattoni F. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 5. Kranevitter M. 10. Lanzini M. 37. Lavagnino L. (G) 25. Ledesma C. (G) 28. Martinez Quarta L. 4. Montiel G. 7. Rojas M. 38. Subiabre I. 19. Tapia G.
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Spinelli C. ⚽, Ibarra R. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Spinelli C. ⚽, Loor L. (A),
42', Colidio F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Aliendro R. ↓, Giuliano Galoppo ↑,
46', Colidio F. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
59', Castano K. ↓, Kranevitter M. ↑,
59', Simon S. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
60', Ibarra R. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
60', Cazares ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
60', Pezzella G. 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Giuliano Galoppo ⚽,
73', Mendez J. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Driussi S. ⚽,
76', Spinelli C. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
76', Mercado P. ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
77', Bustos F. ↓, Montiel G. ↑,
78', Loor L. 🟨,
83', Alcivar J. ↓, Zabala C. ↑,
88', Armani F. 🟨,
90+1', Montiel G. 🟨,
90+5', Kranevitter M. 🟨,

Preview

Ind del Valle in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches River Plate is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Ind del Valle have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Paez K. (Inactive)

There will not play in River Plate: Beltran S. (Injury) Diaz P. (Inactive) Martinez P. (Hamstring Injury) Meza M. (Knee Injury) Ruberto A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ind del Valle: Schunke R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in River Plate: Miguel Borja (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ind del Valle won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Including matches at home between the teams Ind del Valle won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.04.25	Independiente del Valle - Manta	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	El Nacional - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Independiente del Valle - Universitario de Deportes	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.04.25	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Cuenca	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWL
- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.25	Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate	0:3 ✺
13.04.25	River Plate - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	River Plate - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.04.25	Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - River Plate	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTTTW

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