Match Info

League One - Round 10

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Oakwell (Barnsley)

Referee: Linington J. (Eng)


	Barnsley		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.2	Watch
	2.08	3.45	3.35	Watch
	2.17	3.65	3.36
	2.19	3.43	3.11	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.02)	3.53 ↓ (3.63)	3.25 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barnsley
44.3%

Draw
26.7%

Port Vale
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

25.2%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.7%	5.3%	0%

Barnsley - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: Barnsley will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Barnsley will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cooper M. (G) 27. Watson T. 5. Shepherd J. 32. Earl J. 14. Ogbeta N. 30. Bland J. 48. Connell L. (C) 7. Vickers C. 8. Phillips A. 10. McGoldrick D. 40. Keillor-Dunn D.	46. Gauci J. (G) 25. Humphreys C. 22. Debrah J. 5. Hall C. 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 8. Garrity B. (C) 7. Byers G. 26. Shipley J. 3. Headley J. 44. Cole D. 10. Brown D.
Substitutes
19. Cleary R. 6. de Gevigney M. 23. Farrugia N. 51. Flavell K. (G) 18. Rooney J. 3. Russell J. 45. Yoganathan V.	18. Croasdale R. 11. Curtis R. 36. Faal M. 33. Hall G. 4. Heneghan B. 1. Marosi M. (G) 17. Paton R.
Coaches
Hourihane C.	Moore D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Shipley J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', Bland J. 🟨,
65', 0 - 1, Lawrence-Gabriel J. ⚽, Brown D. (A),
66', Vickers C. ↓, Farrugia N. ↑,
67', Keillor-Dunn D. ↓, Cleary R. ↑,
71', Brown D. ↓, Hall G. ↑,
71', Shipley J. ↓, Croasdale R. ↑,
78', Bland J. ↓, Russell J. ↑,
81', Lawrence-Gabriel J. 🟨,
84', Lawrence-Gabriel J. ↓, Heneghan B. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Croasdale R. ⚽,
90+2', Cole D. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barnsley won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Barnsley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Barnsley could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Barnsley: Gent G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Jalo F. (Knee Injury) Kelly P. (Foot Injury) Roberts M. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Port Vale: Kyle John (Inactive)

There are questionable in Port Vale: Gordon L. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Barnsley won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Barnsley won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 2.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Port Vale - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 27.47%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barnsley FC
English League Cup
23.09.25	Barnsley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:6 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Blackpool - Barnsley	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Barnsley - Reading	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Barnsley - Huddersfield Town	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Barnsley - Rotherham United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWWW
- Port Vale
English League Cup
24.09.25	Port Vale - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
English League One
20.09.25	Port Vale - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Exeter City - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Port Vale - Leyton Orient	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Port Vale - Leeds United U21	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
02.11.24	Port Vale - Barnsley	1:3
English League One
26.12.23	Port Vale - Barnsley	2:3
05.08.23	Barnsley - Port Vale	7:0
14.02.23	Port Vale - Barnsley	1:3
English EFL Trophy
23.11.22	Port Vale - Barnsley	2:1
English League One
13.09.22	Barnsley - Port Vale	1:1
28.03.16	Port Vale - Barnsley	0:1

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