Match Info

League One - Round 45

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Oakwell (Barnsley)

Referee: Tallis S. (Eng)


	Barnsley		Shrewsbury Town

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.1	7	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5.25
	1.45	4.5	7
	1.47	4.63	6.71
	1.47	4.39	6.34	Watch
	1.57	4	5
	1.5	4.16	6.59	Watch
	1.45	4.5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.54)	4.33 ↑ (4.29)	6.36 ↑ (5.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barnsley
63.4%

Draw
21.8%

Shrewsbury Town
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

21.7%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

16.2%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Shrewsbury Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Barnsley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shrewsbury Town than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shrewsbury Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Barnsley will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Shrewsbury will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barnsley: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Barnsley (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Gauci J. (G) 20. Lembikisa D. 6. de Gevigney M. 4. Roberts M. 32. Earl J. 48. Connell L. (C) 3. Russell J. 8. Phillips A. 30. Bland J. 2. Cotter B. 40. Keillor-Dunn D.	31. Blackman J. (G) 6. Feeney J. 22. Nsiala A. 23. Nurse G. 2. Hoole L. 8. Biggins H. 24. Stewart C. 17. Gilliead A. 3. Benning M. 9. Lloyd G. 27. Marquis J. (C)
Substitutes
29. Barratt C. 51. Flavell K. (G) 31. Graham K. 21. McCarthy C. 50. Nwakali K. 33. Rodrigues C. 36. Watters M.	18. Dinanga R. 38. England I. 36. Loughran J. 11. Oliver V. 14. Perry T. 16. Pierre A. 13. Young J. (G)
Coaches
Hourihane C.	Appleton M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Marquis J. ⚽, Hoole L. (A),
29', Nurse G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lembikisa D. ↓, Watters M. ↑,
63', Connell L. ↓, Nwakali K. ↑,
67', 0 - 2, Marquis J. ⚽, Stewart C. (A),
78', 1 - 2, Russell J. ⚽,
79', Stewart C. ↓, Perry T. ↑,
83', Lloyd G. ↓, Oliver V. ↑,
90+2', Nurse G. ↓, Pierre A. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Shrewsbury is Relegated to League Two

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barnsley won 4.

Barnsley is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Shrewsbury has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Barnsley is a favorite.

There will not play in Barnsley: Farrugia N. (Inactive) Gent G. (Inactive) Smith J. (Injury)

There will not play in Shrewsbury: Castledine L. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Barnsley: Dyer J. (Inactive) Humphrys S. (Injury) Jalo F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Shrewsbury: Gape D. (Injury) Oliver V. (Injury) Shipley J. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Barnsley won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:8 (average 1.8:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Barnsley won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:4 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barnsley FC
English League One
21.04.25	Barnsley - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
18.04.25	Leyton Orient - Barnsley	4:3 ✺
12.04.25	Barnsley - Bolton Wanderers	4:1 ✺
05.04.25	Birmingham City - Barnsley	6:2 ✺
01.04.25	Barnsley - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLWLL
- Shrewsbury Town
English League One
21.04.25	Northampton Town - Shrewsbury Town	4:1 ✺
18.04.25	Shrewsbury Town - Wigan Athletic	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Lincoln City - Shrewsbury Town	1:1 ✺
08.04.25	Shrewsbury Town - Reading	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Shrewsbury Town - Cambridge United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.10.24	Shrewsbury Town - Barnsley	0:2
13.02.24	Shrewsbury Town - Barnsley	1:1
24.10.23	Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town	3:0
10.04.23	Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town	2:1
12.11.22	Shrewsbury Town - Barnsley	0:1
19.04.19	Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town	2:1
23.10.18	Shrewsbury Town - Barnsley	3:1

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