Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 30

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday


	Barwell		Leiston

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.5	2.18
	2.79	3.76	2.17
	2.81	3.95	2.17	Watch
	2.7	3.4	2.15
	2.8	3.58	2.15
	2.75	3.66	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.47)	3.64 ↓ (3.72)	2.17 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barwell
33%

Draw
25%

Leiston
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

24.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

24.1%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barwell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Leiston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barwell than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barwell, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiston than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leiston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Barwell - Leiston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Hakeem Z. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Mills A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
62', 1 - 2, Sayer H. ⚽,
82', 2 - 2, Mancinelli P. ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 3, Clemons W. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barwell won 2.

Barwell is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leiston has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Leiston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Barwell won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Barwell won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of English Southern League Central Division for now

Leiston: 0.39%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Leiston	9	3	2	4	17:17	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Barwell - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Leiston - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.54%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barwell
English Southern League Central Division
31.01.26	Banbury United - Barwell	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Bromsgrove Sporting - Barwell	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Barwell - Real Bedford	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Spalding United - Barwell	3:0 ✺
27.12.25	Barwell - Quorn	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLT
- Leiston
English Southern League Central Division
03.02.26	Bury Town - Leiston	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leiston - Royston Town	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Harborough Town - Leiston	3:2 ✺
20.01.26	Leiston - Alvechurch	3:3 ✺
17.01.26	Leiston - Stourbridge	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
18.10.25	Leiston - Barwell	2:2
15.03.25	Leiston - Barwell	3:4
21.09.24	Barwell - Leiston	0:0
10.02.24	Leiston - Barwell	1:2
30.09.23	Barwell - Leiston	2:3
08.04.23	Leiston - Barwell	2:0
06.02.23	Barwell - Leiston	2:3

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