Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 27

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Landry R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Bastia		Boulogne

	1	X	2
	1.85	2.9	4.33	Watch
	2.02	2.98	3.95
	1.99	3.23	4.47
	1.99	3.05	4.28	Watch
	1.95	3	4
	2.01	3.08	4.37	Watch
	2	3	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.09)	3.03 ↓ (3.19)	4.14 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
47%

Draw
30.6%

Boulogne
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.3%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.1%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Boulogne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boulogne than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	11.8%	41.2%

Bastia - Boulogne Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Boulogne will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bastia: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 1 - 50%). Boulogne (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Boulogne (2.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Boulogne (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 28. Akueson G. 3. Guevara J. 5. Ariss Z. 13. Ducrocq T. 7. Vincent C. (C) 29. Merghem M. 17. Eickmayer J. 10. Boutrah A. 14. Sebas J.	99. Noukeu B. (G) 18. Thiam D. 15. Pinot A. 5. Zohore N. (C) 12. Boyer J. 97. Moco Z. 10. El Farissi A. 22. Duflos S. 19. Binet N. 3. Burlet V. 17. Fatou C.
Substitutes
33. Beliandjou R. 15. Bohnert F. 66. Janneh J. 1. Olmeta L. (G) 4. Roncaglia A. 9. Tomi F. 18. Zaouai A.	7. Boiteau L. 26. Capuano G. 4. Kapenga J. 16. Kone I. (G) 9. Lecolier M. 90. Martin J. 21. Platret A.
Coaches
Ray R.	Dagneaux F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, El Farissi A. ⚽, Fatou C. (A),
26', Sebas J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ariss Z. ↓, Bohnert F. ↑,
51', Boutrah A. 🟨,
59', Ducrocq T. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
59', Boutrah A. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
60', Sebas J. ↓, Tomi F. ↑,
67', Vincent C. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Fatou C. ↓, Lecolier M. ↑,
68', Duflos S. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
74', El Farissi A. ↓, Platret A. ↑,
75', Eickmayer J. 🟨,
83', Moco Z. ↓, Capuano G. ↑,
85', Vincent C. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
90', Platret A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 12).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bastia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guidi D. (Inactive) Meynadier T. (Injury) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Roncaglia A. (Injury) Zilliox N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Boulogne: Gourville S. (Inactive) Keita S. (Inactive) Kouassi E. (Inactive) Martin J. (Inactive) Uriev A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Boulogne: Bultel J. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Boulogne: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Boulogne	7	0	5	2	3:5	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
06.03.26	Pau - Bastia	2:2 ✺
27.02.26	Bastia - Annecy	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Dunkerque - Bastia	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Bastia - Troyes	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Reims - Bastia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TLTTT
- US Boulogne
French Ligue 2
06.03.26	Boulogne - Amiens	4:2 ✺
27.02.26	Grenoble - Boulogne	0:0 ✺
20.02.26	Boulogne - Clermont	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Pau - Boulogne	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Boulogne - Rodez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0
French Ligue 3
22.01.21	Boulogne - Bastia	1:2
03.09.20	Bastia - Boulogne	0:1
French Ligue 2
02.03.12	Bastia - Boulogne	N/A

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