Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 26

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free


	Pau		Bastia

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2	3.3	3.6
	2.42	3.15	2.82
	2.55	3.25	2.96
	2.48	3.22	2.86	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.58	3.2	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.16)	3.17 ↓ (3.3)	2.95 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
38.7%

Draw
29.5%

Bastia
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.1%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

27.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	38.9%	16.7%

Pau - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Bastia (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Bastia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Raveyre N. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 97. Meddah D. 23. Briancon A. 25. Ruiz J. (C) 3. Kalulu J. 9. Dong K. 21. Beusnard S. 20. Anziani J. 10. Versini G. 17. Sissoko O.	1. Olmeta L. (G) 15. Bohnert F. 66. Janneh J. 28. Akueson G. 3. Guevara J. 5. Ariss Z. 29. Merghem M. 13. Ducrocq T. (C) 17. Eickmayer J. 10. Boutrah A. 9. Tomi F.
Substitutes
14. Bobichon A. 6. Fall C. 26. Glossoa N. 18. Sadik O. 30. Salles E. (G) 84. Touzghar R. 87. Zuliani E.	2. Basset D. 33. Beliandjou R. 8. Karamoko I. 35. Lebas da Silva V. 30. Placide J. (G) 7. Vincent C. 18. Zaouai A.
Coaches
Debes T.	Ray R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Sissoko O. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Eickmayer J. ⚽,
31', 2 - 1, Anziani J. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dong K. ↓, Touzghar R. ↑,
46', Tomi F. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
51', Boutrah A. 🟨,
57', Briancon A. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
60', Janneh J. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
66', Guevara J. 🟨,
69', Akueson G. 🟨,
74', Ducrocq T. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
74', Boutrah A. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
79', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
83', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
84', Versini G. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
84', Bohnert F. ↓, Lebas da Silva V. ↑,
85', Raveyre N. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 2, Vincent C. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pau won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Pau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J. (Inactive) Kante (Inactive) Zuliani E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guidi D. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Sebas J. (Red Card) Zilliox N. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pau won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Pau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Pau FC	7	2	2	3	6:6	0	8

Last Results with these Odds

Pau - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.87%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
28.02.26	Pau - Saint-Étienne	0:3 ✺
21.02.26	Troyes - Pau	4:3 ✺
13.02.26	Pau - Boulogne	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Red Star - Pau	0:3 ✺
30.01.26	Laval - Pau	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
27.02.26	Bastia - Annecy	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Dunkerque - Bastia	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Bastia - Troyes	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Reims - Bastia	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Bastia - Nancy	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
15.08.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1
24.01.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1
22.10.24	Pau - Bastia	1:1
10.05.24	Pau - Bastia	1:2
26.09.23	Bastia - Pau	1:4
20.05.23	Pau - Bastia	2:6
13.01.23	Bastia - Pau	1:0

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