Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 9

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
United Kingdom	19:45	Ligue 1+


	Bastia		Orleans

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.10	3.10
	2.18	3.15	3.05
	2.24	3.35	3.46
	2.15	3.22	3.15	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.4
	2.15	3.61	3.27
	2.17	3.2	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.36)	3.25 ↑ (3.06)	3.21 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
42.7%

Draw
28.5%

Orleans
28.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.7%

29.9%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.4%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Orleans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orleans than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Bastia - Orleans Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Orleans will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bastia: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Percin T. (G) 2. Zilliox N. 4. Roncaglia A. (C) 35. Douce N. 17. Eickmayer J. 13. Melieres C. 3. Makalou H. 12. Belal L. 22. Monnier I. 7. Rodrigues C. 19. Beliandjou R.	1. Faham F. (G) 24. Drame I. 5. Sylla M. (C) 27. Lemaitre M. 3. Ndicka Matam T. 6. Aubourg H. 21. Raillot L. 20. Dali-Amar B. 7. Diako M. 9. Prunier M. 19. Legendre R.
Substitutes
36. Alebate N. 29. Boumaaoui M. 16. Contena S. (G) 25. Diarra D. 34. Djedje D. 28. Petrignani M. 14. Tamba D.	14. Aouladzian Y. 4. Balenga E. 12. Guiheneuf M. 10. Khous G. 23. Koembo J. 40. Moussima S. (G) 26. Ribeiro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Belal L. 🟨,
12', Drame I. 🟨,
27', Raillot L. 🟨,
42', Melieres C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Beliandjou R. ↓, Alebate N. ↑,
58', Zilliox N. 🟨,
62', Prunier M. ↓, Ribeiro A. ↑,
64', Makalou H. ↓, Diarra D. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Melieres C. ⚽,
68', Dali-Amar B. 🟨,
70', Raillot L. ↓, Khous G. ↑,
76', Melieres C. ↓, Petrignani M. ↑,
83', De Percin T. 🟨,
84', Contena S. 🟨,
86', Monnier I. 🟨,
86', Roncaglia A. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Legendre R. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Rodrigues C. ↓, Boumaaoui M. ↑,
89', Belal L. ↓, Tamba D. ↑,
90+8', Zilliox N. 🟥,
90+10', Eickmayer J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 12th and 15th).

Bastia has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Orleans is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Bastia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Bastia has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bastia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Bastia	10	3	3	4	8:12	-4	12
15	Orleans	10	2	3	5	9:14	-5	9

Outrights of French Ligue 3 for now

Orleans: 3.83% Bastia: 3.83%

Last Results with these Odds

Bastia - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 38.73%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Orleans - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 31.41%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 3
26.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Bastia	1:0 ✺
17.09.26	Bastia - Cannes	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Bastia	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Bastia - Amiens	0:3 ✺
27.08.26	Caen - Bastia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTWLW
- US Orleans
French Ligue 3
26.09.26	Orleans - Cannes	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Amiens - Orleans	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Orleans - Versailles	0:4 ✺
05.09.26	Le Puy - Orleans	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Orleans - La Roche VF	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
29.03.21	Orleans - Bastia	2:1
23.10.20	Bastia - Orleans	1:1

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