Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Pele (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Paris 13 Atletico		Bastia

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.00	2.70
	2.55	2.95	2.60
	2.53	3.20	2.98
	2.45	3.06	2.79	Watch
	2.45	3.15	2.90
	2.39	3.02	2.72
	2.41	3.10	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.77)	3.07 ↓ (3.08)	2.78 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris 13 Atletico
37.3%

Draw
29.8%

Bastia
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

29.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris 13 Atletico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris 13 Atletico than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paris 13 Atletico that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bastia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Paris 13 Atletico - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Temperton A. (G) 27. Camara F. 20. Ayessa J. 19. Kone I. (C) 5. Poha J. 18. Dode E. 21. Guendez M. 6. Camara I. 24. Bernardino N. 23. Kone I. 29. Donat N.	1. De Percin T. (G) 2. Zilliox N. 4. Roncaglia A. (C) 22. Monnier I. 35. Douce N. 34. Djedje D. 17. Eickmayer J. 12. Belal L. 3. Makalou H. 7. Rodrigues C. 29. Boumaaoui M.
Substitutes
10. Amara A. 16. Bernard S. (G) 8. Bezzekhami O. 4. Diedhiou C. 22. Michut E. 26. Misiatu S. 11. Sidibe A.	33. Aiello N. 36. Alebate N. 19. Beliandjou R. 16. Contena S. (G) 25. Diarra D. 37. Matseraka N. 38. Pasqualini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Dode E. (Penalty Awarded),
37', 1 - 0, Guendez M. ⚽, Donat N. (A),
41', Donat N. 🟨,
43', Douce N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Poha J. 🟨,
53', Camara F. 🟨,
53', Djedje D. 🟨,
62', Belal L. ↓, Diarra D. ↑,
62', Kone I. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
62', Boumaaoui M. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
63', Beliandjou R. 🟨,
70', Camara F. ↓, Michut E. ↑,
71', Guendez M. ↓, Amara A. ↑,
83', Djedje D. ↓, Alebate N. ↑,
84', Donat N. ↓, Bezzekhami O. ↑,
84', Ayessa J. 🟨,
90', Makalou H. ↓, Pasqualini G. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Paris 13 Atletico may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Outrights of French Ligue 3 for now

Bastia: 8.61%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Bastia	9	3	2	4	7:11	-4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Paris 13 Atletico - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 32.94%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris 13 Atletico
French Ligue 3
19.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Bourg-Péronnas	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Caen - Paris 13 Atletico	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Thionville Lusitanos - Paris 13 Atletico	1:1 ✺
20.08.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLTTW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 3
17.09.26	Bastia - Cannes	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Bastia	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Bastia - Amiens	0:3 ✺
27.08.26	Caen - Bastia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Bastia - Versailles	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWLWL

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